List of privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia

Inquiry identifies privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia

A report prepared for the Owen Inquiry by Morgan Stanley lists four privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia. Reference: Morgan Stanley, Report to the Owen Inquiry: Securing Private Investment in New Generation in New South Wales, 31 August, 2007. 16/10/2007

17 October: High max temps for Qld

Market report for Tuesday, 16 October: 10 negative price intervals see Tas with minus $96.41/MWh as NSW, Vic, SA and Qld rise 11-13pc to $31.36-$34.84/MWh range on higher demand

Ten negative price trading intervals with prices between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh resulted in Tasmania recording an average of minus $96.41/MWh, with NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland up 11-13 per cent to a range of $31.36-$34.84/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 712MW (2.7 per cent) with rises in all regions, led by the 316MW increase in NSW.

Tuesday, 16 October: One LRC omission and one addition for Qld in MT PASA list for week to 16 October

NEMMCO made two changes in the list for low reserve condition (LRC) in the medium term projected assessment of system adequacy (MT PASA) issued at 1314EST on Tuesday, 16 October following one change the previous week.

Tuesday, 16 October: Tas goes negative with 10 trading intervals between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh

Tasmania recorded negative prices of between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh in 10 30-minute trading intervals on Tuesday, 16 October. From morning to early afternoon: The negative prices started in the 0900EST interval and continued though until the 1400EST interval, with only one positive price in this period.

Range of negative prices: There were two negative prices between minus $100 and minus $200, two between minus $300 and minus $400, one between minus $400 and minus $500, 1 between minus $600 and minus $700, 1 between minus $800 and minus $900 and three over minus $900 – two at minus $999.67/MWh and one at minus $999.68/MWh.

Average at minus $96.41/MWh: These 10 trading intervals forced Tasmania’s average price for the day down to minus $96.41/MWh.

Highest price of day, too: Tasmania also recorded the day’s highest price for the NEM regions of $69.96/MWh in the 0630EST interval.

Demand up: Maximum demand of 1392MW in the 1930EST interval was up 87MW (6.7 per cent) on Monday.

Reference: National Price for Tasmania for one day, Tuesday 16 October, in Price/Demand section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Erisk Net, 17/10/2007

Market forecast for Monday, 15 October: Average prices down 26-39pc to $25.43-$28.03/MWh range on falling demand

Average prices are expected to fall 26-39 per cent on Friday, the previous week day, to a range of $25.43-28.03/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to fall 874MW (3.3 per cent) to 26,918MW, with falls in all regions.
The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 15-28 degrees (11-23 on Sunday); Melbourne 13-27 degrees (11-23); Adelaide 13-29 degrees (9-21); Brisbane 15-28 degrees (15-24); and Hobart 11-21 degrees (10-20). 6.31 a.m. predispatch forecast: The following are the forecast prices and demands for the NEM regions at the predispatch at 6.31 a.m. today.

• NSW: The predicted average price is $28.03/MWh, down $9.75/MWh (26 per cent) on the $37.78/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $38.29/MWh. Average demand is expected to be 8719MW, up 78MW (0.9 per cent) on Friday’s 8641MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 9959MW, up 198MW (2.0 per cent) on Friday’s 9761MW.

• Victoria: The forecast average price is $26.51/MWh, down $14.38/MWh (35 per cent) on the $40.90/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $37.72/MWh. Average demand is predicted to be down 236MW (3.9 per cent) to 5860MW on Friday’s 6096MW while maximum demand is forecast to be 6499MW, down 240MW (3.6 per cent)on Friday’s 6739MW.

• South Australia: The expected average price is $27.61/MWh, down $12.02/MWh (30 per cent) on the $39.63/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is predicted to be $35.39/MWh. Average demand is forecast to be down 27MW (1.9 per cent) to 1386MW on Friday’s 1413MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1575MW, down 51MW (3.1 per cent) on Friday’s 1626MW.

• Queensland: The predicted average price is $25.43/MWh, down $16.51/MWh (39 per cent) on the $41.94/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $35.42/MWh. Average demand is expected to be down 299MW (4.9 per cent) to 5764MW on Friday’s 6063MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 6569MW, down 703MW (9.7 per cent) on Friday’s 7272MW.

• Tasmania: The forecast average price is $28.03/MWh, down $11.54/MWh (29 per cent) on the $39.57/MWh on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $48.82/MWh. Average demand is predicted to drop 36MW (3.2 per cent) to 1103MW on Friday’s 1139MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1295MW, down 41MW (3.1 per cent) on the 1336MW on Friday.

Single Infoserver only on Tuesday: NEMMCO advised that routine maintenance work required on the MMS production Infoservers meant a single Infoserver would be in use between 0930EST and 1400EST on Tuesday, 16 October. It said no impact was expected.

The weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued the following weather outlook for the following three days. In addition, it issued the following forecast for the coming day’s clear sky maximum UV (ultraviolet radiation) index for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. The BOM has three categories for forecasts relating to cloud cover: Clear/scattered, when more than half the sky is clear of cloud; Broken, when there are some breaks in cloud but more than half the sky is covered; and Overcast, when the sky is totally covered in cloud.

• The forecast for Sydney today is fine and sunny with an extreme clear sky UV index of 11 and a temperature range of 15-28 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine with an an afternoon southerly change and a temperature range of 17-31. A mostly fine day is expected on Wednesday with a temperature range of 13-19.

• The forecast for Melbourne today is for a fine day with a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 13-27 degrees. A few showers are forecast for tomorrow with a temperature range of 12-27. Wednesday should be fine with a temperature range of 9-20.

• The forecast for Adelaide today is fine and sunny with a wind change, a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 17-29 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and partly cloudy with a temperature range of 11-19. Wednesday is expected to be fine and sunny with a temperature range of 8-26.

• The forecast for Brisbane today and tomorrow is fine with a very high clear sky UV index of 10 today and temperature ranges of 15-28 degrees today and 15-31 tomorrow. Wednesday should be mostly fine with a temperature range of 16-26.

• The forecast for Hobart today is mainly fine and windy with a high clear sky UV index of 6 and a temperature range of 11-21 degrees. The forecast for tomorrow is for showers, mountain snow and a temperature range of 6-12. The forecast for Wednesday is becoming fine with a temperature range of 4-14.

Erisk Net, 15/10/2007

Market report for week to Saturday, 13 October: Storms, blackouts; Five days of spikes push Qld average price up 134pc, with Vic and Tas rising 1-11pc, SA steady and NSW down 5pc to overall $32.67-$111.53/MWh range on firmer demand

8 October Qld blackout spikes: Stanwell pool-price earnings of $10,592,156

Queensland Total Generator Income 1 day at http:// www.erisk.net ending Monday 8/10/2007 (4:00 am Trading) showed average pool price earnings as:

By-election snapshot of how ALP will target Greens at national poll: Brisbane Central residents get warning against voting “Extreme Green”

A by-election has given a snapshot of how the ALP would target the Greens at the national poll, with election material warning Brisbane Central residents of the perils of voting “Extreme Green” posted to thousands of homes this week, wrote Mark Ludlow in The Australian Financial Review (12/10/2007, p.15).

Market report for Thursday, 11 October: Lightning in SE Qld corridor, $10,000 energy prices, negative QNI settlement residues cause $3000-plus spikes: negative QNI settlement residues cause $3000-plus spikes: Average prices up 2-20pc to $36.42-$131.84/MWh range on rising demand

With lightning activity continuing in a south-eastern Queensland corridor from Bulli Creek to Calvale, $10,000 overconstrained energy prices and negative settlement residues exceeding the QNI interconnector threshold, Queensland had spikes for the eighth day in a row with a top price exceeding $3000/MWh for the second successive day. Average prices rose 2-20 per cent to a range of $36.42-$131.84/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 805MW (3.1 per cent) with rises in all regions except Tasmania.

Thursday, 11 October: Qld spikes with top price over $3000 for second day in row as lightning affects power lines in SE corridor

Queensland recorded a top price of $3405.68/MWh in late afternoon and evening spike intervals on Thursday, 11 October, just below the top price of $3407.42/MWh on Wednesday.

Friday October 12: SE Qld storm possible, rain for NSW coast

Brisbane, Friday 12 October; max temp may touch 35C, afternoon storm-rain possible

Thursday 11 October: Queensland price spiked past $3000/MWh as NSW-Qld flow dipped to $250MW

Spike prices past $3000/MWh in Queensland

Rowsthorn set to leverage Pacific National rail business into Qld coal industry, busting open Qld Rail’s cosy little rail monopoly by signing up two customers, Xstrata and Rio Tinto

Rowsthorn was about to leverage the Pacific National rail business into the Queensland coal industry, busting open Queensland Rail’s cosy little rail monopoly, by signing up two customers, Xstrata and Rio Tinto, to transport coal from their mines to the ports, reported Adele Ferguson in The Australian (10/9/2007, p.36).

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh rules out introducing daylight saving; overruled poll shows 60pc of Qld residents want to join same time zone as NSW and Victoria

According to Mark Ludlow in The Australian Financial Review, (2/10/2007, p. 7), Queensland Premier Anna Bligh yesterday ruled out introducing daylight saving. She overruled a government-commissioned poll that showed almost 60 per cent of Queensland residents wanted to join the same time zone as NSW and Victoria.

1 October: Qld starts month with temperatures of up to 6C above average; three-month seasonal outlook is for drier-than-average conditions along east coast

Queensland started October with temperatures of up to 6C above average, reported Brian Williams in The Courier Mail (2/10/2007, p.5).

Southeast Queensland could be in line for a severe storm season

Southeast Queensland could be in line for a severe storm season after several small cells formed in the region this week, reported The Courier Mail (29/9/2007, p.11).

Dirt flies as Nationals fight to hold on to mining-rich electorate of Dawson, Qld

According to Lachlan Heywood in The Courier Mail (26/9/2007, p.11), Queensland coal miners were unwillingly funding a climate-change campaign managed by a close friend and former adviser to Greens leader Bob Brown.

Value of Australian thermal coal exports in 2006-07 $6.8 billion; 6 per cent fall from 2005-06, as Australian dollar rises against US dollar

2007 global alumina forecast to increase 10 per cent to 81.7 million tonnes

China drives demand: In 2007, global production of alumina was forecast to increase by around 10 per cent to 81.7 million tonnes.