List of privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia

Inquiry identifies privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia

A report prepared for the Owen Inquiry by Morgan Stanley lists four privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia. Reference: Morgan Stanley, Report to the Owen Inquiry: Securing Private Investment in New Generation in New South Wales, 31 August, 2007. 16/10/2007

Market report for Tuesday, 16 October: 10 negative price intervals see Tas with minus $96.41/MWh as NSW, Vic, SA and Qld rise 11-13pc to $31.36-$34.84/MWh range on higher demand

Ten negative price trading intervals with prices between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh resulted in Tasmania recording an average of minus $96.41/MWh, with NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland up 11-13 per cent to a range of $31.36-$34.84/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 712MW (2.7 per cent) with rises in all regions, led by the 316MW increase in NSW.

Tuesday, 16 October: Tas goes negative with 10 trading intervals between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh

Tasmania recorded negative prices of between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh in 10 30-minute trading intervals on Tuesday, 16 October. From morning to early afternoon: The negative prices started in the 0900EST interval and continued though until the 1400EST interval, with only one positive price in this period.

Range of negative prices: There were two negative prices between minus $100 and minus $200, two between minus $300 and minus $400, one between minus $400 and minus $500, 1 between minus $600 and minus $700, 1 between minus $800 and minus $900 and three over minus $900 – two at minus $999.67/MWh and one at minus $999.68/MWh.

Average at minus $96.41/MWh: These 10 trading intervals forced Tasmania’s average price for the day down to minus $96.41/MWh.

Highest price of day, too: Tasmania also recorded the day’s highest price for the NEM regions of $69.96/MWh in the 0630EST interval.

Demand up: Maximum demand of 1392MW in the 1930EST interval was up 87MW (6.7 per cent) on Monday.

Reference: National Price for Tasmania for one day, Tuesday 16 October, in Price/Demand section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Erisk Net, 17/10/2007

Wednesday, 17 October: Tas in about turn: Spike to $8000.16/MWh in morning trading interval tipped after 10 negative price intervals on Tuesda

The NEMMCO predispatch at 6.53 a.m. on Wednesday, 17 October predicted a spike to $8000.16/MWh for the 30-minute trading interval ended 0900EST. Average price of $191.13/MWh expected: This large spike is expected to be enough to push Tasmania’s average price to $191.13/MWh following an average of minus $96.41/MWh on Tuesday when there were 10 negative price intervals with prices ranging from minus $158.68/MWh to $999.68/MWh.

Demand up: Tasmania’s maximum demand is predicted to continue rising, up 72MW (5.2 per cent) to 1464MW following an 87MW rise on Tuesday. Tasmania is the only NEM region expected to register an increase in maximum demand on Wednesday.

Reference: Pool Price for Tasmania in NEMMCO predispatch at 6.53 a.m. on Wednesday in User Defined section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Market forecast for Monday, 15 October: Average prices down 26-39pc to $25.43-$28.03/MWh range on falling demand

Average prices are expected to fall 26-39 per cent on Friday, the previous week day, to a range of $25.43-28.03/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to fall 874MW (3.3 per cent) to 26,918MW, with falls in all regions.
The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 15-28 degrees (11-23 on Sunday); Melbourne 13-27 degrees (11-23); Adelaide 13-29 degrees (9-21); Brisbane 15-28 degrees (15-24); and Hobart 11-21 degrees (10-20). 6.31 a.m. predispatch forecast: The following are the forecast prices and demands for the NEM regions at the predispatch at 6.31 a.m. today.

• NSW: The predicted average price is $28.03/MWh, down $9.75/MWh (26 per cent) on the $37.78/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $38.29/MWh. Average demand is expected to be 8719MW, up 78MW (0.9 per cent) on Friday’s 8641MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 9959MW, up 198MW (2.0 per cent) on Friday’s 9761MW.

• Victoria: The forecast average price is $26.51/MWh, down $14.38/MWh (35 per cent) on the $40.90/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $37.72/MWh. Average demand is predicted to be down 236MW (3.9 per cent) to 5860MW on Friday’s 6096MW while maximum demand is forecast to be 6499MW, down 240MW (3.6 per cent)on Friday’s 6739MW.

• South Australia: The expected average price is $27.61/MWh, down $12.02/MWh (30 per cent) on the $39.63/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is predicted to be $35.39/MWh. Average demand is forecast to be down 27MW (1.9 per cent) to 1386MW on Friday’s 1413MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1575MW, down 51MW (3.1 per cent) on Friday’s 1626MW.

• Queensland: The predicted average price is $25.43/MWh, down $16.51/MWh (39 per cent) on the $41.94/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $35.42/MWh. Average demand is expected to be down 299MW (4.9 per cent) to 5764MW on Friday’s 6063MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 6569MW, down 703MW (9.7 per cent) on Friday’s 7272MW.

• Tasmania: The forecast average price is $28.03/MWh, down $11.54/MWh (29 per cent) on the $39.57/MWh on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $48.82/MWh. Average demand is predicted to drop 36MW (3.2 per cent) to 1103MW on Friday’s 1139MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1295MW, down 41MW (3.1 per cent) on the 1336MW on Friday.

Single Infoserver only on Tuesday: NEMMCO advised that routine maintenance work required on the MMS production Infoservers meant a single Infoserver would be in use between 0930EST and 1400EST on Tuesday, 16 October. It said no impact was expected.

The weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued the following weather outlook for the following three days. In addition, it issued the following forecast for the coming day’s clear sky maximum UV (ultraviolet radiation) index for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. The BOM has three categories for forecasts relating to cloud cover: Clear/scattered, when more than half the sky is clear of cloud; Broken, when there are some breaks in cloud but more than half the sky is covered; and Overcast, when the sky is totally covered in cloud.

• The forecast for Sydney today is fine and sunny with an extreme clear sky UV index of 11 and a temperature range of 15-28 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine with an an afternoon southerly change and a temperature range of 17-31. A mostly fine day is expected on Wednesday with a temperature range of 13-19.

• The forecast for Melbourne today is for a fine day with a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 13-27 degrees. A few showers are forecast for tomorrow with a temperature range of 12-27. Wednesday should be fine with a temperature range of 9-20.

• The forecast for Adelaide today is fine and sunny with a wind change, a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 17-29 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and partly cloudy with a temperature range of 11-19. Wednesday is expected to be fine and sunny with a temperature range of 8-26.

• The forecast for Brisbane today and tomorrow is fine with a very high clear sky UV index of 10 today and temperature ranges of 15-28 degrees today and 15-31 tomorrow. Wednesday should be mostly fine with a temperature range of 16-26.

• The forecast for Hobart today is mainly fine and windy with a high clear sky UV index of 6 and a temperature range of 11-21 degrees. The forecast for tomorrow is for showers, mountain snow and a temperature range of 6-12. The forecast for Wednesday is becoming fine with a temperature range of 4-14.

Erisk Net, 15/10/2007

8 October Qld blackout spikes: Stanwell pool-price earnings of $10,592,156

Queensland Total Generator Income 1 day at http:// www.erisk.net ending Monday 8/10/2007 (4:00 am Trading) showed average pool price earnings as:

Market report for Thursday, 11 October: Lightning in SE Qld corridor, $10,000 energy prices, negative QNI settlement residues cause $3000-plus spikes: negative QNI settlement residues cause $3000-plus spikes: Average prices up 2-20pc to $36.42-$131.84/MWh range on rising demand

With lightning activity continuing in a south-eastern Queensland corridor from Bulli Creek to Calvale, $10,000 overconstrained energy prices and negative settlement residues exceeding the QNI interconnector threshold, Queensland had spikes for the eighth day in a row with a top price exceeding $3000/MWh for the second successive day. Average prices rose 2-20 per cent to a range of $36.42-$131.84/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 805MW (3.1 per cent) with rises in all regions except Tasmania.

Thursday, 11 October: Qld spikes with top price over $3000 for second day in row as lightning affects power lines in SE corridor

Queensland recorded a top price of $3405.68/MWh in late afternoon and evening spike intervals on Thursday, 11 October, just below the top price of $3407.42/MWh on Wednesday.

Friday October 12: SE Qld storm possible, rain for NSW coast

Brisbane, Friday 12 October; max temp may touch 35C, afternoon storm-rain possible

Thursday 11 October: Queensland price spiked past $3000/MWh as NSW-Qld flow dipped to $250MW

Spike prices past $3000/MWh in Queensland

Wednesday, 10 October: Seventh day of spikes in Qld with top price of $3407.42/MWh

Queensland recorded a top price of $3407.42/MWh in three spike intervals on Wednesday, 10 October, the seventh successive day of spikes in the region.

Spot iron ore $US110 a tonne compared with the Australian contract price of $US52 a tonne; crude oil continues to trade above $US80 a barrel: analysts predict contract price rises up to 40pc for iron ore in 2008-09

Spot iron ore [Indian spot at port India, free on board] was trading at more than $US110 a tonne, compared with the Australian contract price of $US52 a tonne, according to Stephen Wyatt in Shanghai, writing in The Australian Financial Review, (8/10/2007, p. 23).

Quite possible for an Australian prime minister to refuse to call an election, warns former federal attorney-general

According to Michael Lavarch, executive dean of the QUT Law Faculty and a former federal attorney-general, writing in The Australian Financial Review, (5/10/2007), p. 56, the prime minister only needs to go to the governor-general to get the house dissolved if he wants an election called before 15 November 2007.

Market report for Wednesday, 10 October: Storms, $10,000 prices, directions and $3407.42/MWh spike in Qld push average price up 35pc, with NSW, Vic, SA and Tas down 1-14pc to overall $31-43-$113.39/MWh range on lower demand

An eventful day in Queensland with continuing storms, $10,000 dispatch prices to be reviewed, directions to three participants over credible contingencies and a spike with a top price of $3407.42/MWh saw average price rise 35 per cent to $113.39/MWh. Average prices fell 1-14 per cent in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania to a range of $31.43-$35.73/MWh.

Wednesday, 10 October: Seventh day of spikes in Qld with top price of $3407.42/MWh

Queensland recorded a top price of $3407.42/MWh in three spike intervals on Wednesday, 10 October, the seventh successive day of spikes in the region.

Afternoon and evening spikes: The $3407.42/MWh spike came in the 30-minute trading interval ended 1700EST and was followed by spikes of $164.81/MWh in the 1900EST interval and $111.55/MWh in the 1930EST interval.

$10,000 dispatch price review: The $3407.42/MWh top price came in the interval when there was a $10,000 energy price published for the 1650EST dispatch interval, which is subject to review.

Directions issued to three participants: Storms continued throughout Queensland, resulting in a number of credible contingencies being declared and NEMMCO issuing directions to three participants to maintain power system security.

Demand down: Queensland maximum demand was down 184MW (2.7 per cent) to 6717MW on Tuesday’s 6901MW.

Reference: National Price for Queensland for one day, Wednesday 10 October, in Price/Demand section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Queensland revolution: Santos’ LNG proposal requires 170-220PJ per annum; and Arrow Energy’s LNG Proposal 55PJ per annum

On the 18 July 2007, Santos announced a proposal to construct a 3-4 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility at Gladstone.

Market report for Tuesday, 9 October: Average prices up 5-6pc in NSW and Vic, down 5-75pc in SA, Qld and Tas to $31.61-$84.09/MWh range on falling demand: Lower Qld spikes

Smaller spikes saw Queensland’s average price plunge 75 per cent, with NSW and Victoria up 5-6 per cent and South Australia and Tasmania down 5-8 per cent to an overall $31.61-$84.09/MWh range. System-wide maximum demand was down 362MW (1.3 per cent) to 26,558MW, with falls in all regions. Top price of the day was the spike to $281.69 MWh in the 30-minute trading interval ended 1400EST. Queensland had the highest average price and South Australia the lowest.

Tuesday, 9 October: Smaller spikes with top price of $281.69/MWh on sixth straight day of Qld spikes

Queensland recorded a top price of $281.69/MWh in multiple spikes on Tuesday, 9 October.

Queensland PearlStreet’s revenue, came in at $8.2 million in 2005, forecast to reach up to $80 million in the current financial year

PearlStreet, a company that carries out structural testing and monitoring of major resources-related infrastructure such as pipelines, storage tanks and processing plants, did not even exist four years ago, reported The Australian Financial Review (4/10/2007, p.61).

Queensland’s Western Corridor Recycled Water project: scheme now expected to produce less than 60 per cent of its design capacity

The Queensland Water Commission had once again cut its estimate of likely output from the State Government’s $2.4 billion Western Corridor Recycled Water project, reported The Courier Mail, (3/10/2007, p. 4).

Market report for Thursday, 4 October: Qld spike, Tas negative price on day when average prices up 2-4pc in SA, Qld and Tas, down 7-10pc in NSW and Vic to $32.85-$46.94/MWh range on lower demand

An afternoon spike in Queensland and a morning negative price in Tasmania featured in a day when average prices rose 2-4 per cent in South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania and fell 7-10 per cent in NSW and Victoria to a range of $32.85-$49.94/MWh.

Market forecast for Friday, 5 October: Average prices steady in SA and Tas, down 11-30pc in NSW, Vic and Qld to $32.69-$36.73/MWh range on lower demand

Average prices are expected to be steady in South Australia and Tasmania and drop 11-30 per cent in NSW, Victoria and Queensland to a range of $32.69-$36.73/MWh.

Rowsthorn set to leverage Pacific National rail business into Qld coal industry, busting open Qld Rail’s cosy little rail monopoly by signing up two customers, Xstrata and Rio Tinto

Rowsthorn was about to leverage the Pacific National rail business into the Queensland coal industry, busting open Queensland Rail’s cosy little rail monopoly, by signing up two customers, Xstrata and Rio Tinto, to transport coal from their mines to the ports, reported Adele Ferguson in The Australian (10/9/2007, p.36).

Thursday, 4 October: Afternoon spike to $105.07/MWh in Qld as heat continues

Queensland recorded a spike to $105.07/MWh in one 30-minute trading interval on Thursday, 5 October.

Qld’s rebel time zone: Gold Coast considers defying State Government and going it alone on daylight saving

According to Greg Stolz, the Gold Coast was considering defying the State Government and going it alone on daylight saving, reported The Courier Mail (3/10/2007, p.3).

Value of Australian thermal coal exports in 2006-07 $6.8 billion; 6 per cent fall from 2005-06, as Australian dollar rises against US dollar

2007 global alumina forecast to increase 10 per cent to 81.7 million tonnes

China drives demand: In 2007, global production of alumina was forecast to increase by around 10 per cent to 81.7 million tonnes.

Market report for Friday, 28 September: Spikes push Qld average price up 4pc with Vic and SA rising 4-7pc, Tas steady and NSW down 1pc to $43.83-$59.72/MWh range on firmer demand

Spikes in Queensland pushed its average price up 4 per cent while Victoria and South Australia rose 4-7 per cent, Tasmania remained steady and NSW fell nearly 1 per cent to an overall range of $43.83-$59.72/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 186MW (0.7 per cent) to 26,156MW, with rises in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland.