Victoria Bill to amend the Electricity Industry Act 2000, the Gas Industry Act 2001, the Gas Pipelines Access (Victoria) Act 1998, the Gas and Fuel Corporation (Heatane Gas) Act 1993

The Bill would amend the Electricity Industry Act 2000, the Gas Industry Act 2001, the Gas Pipelines Access (Victoria) Act 1998, the Gas and Fuel Corporation (Heatane Gas) Act 1993 and would meet some other purposes. “The main thrust of it, however, is to make amendments as a consequence of the review of the Victorian Energy Networks Corporation, more commonly known as VENCorp,” Batchelor said. “A review was undertaken of that and this is implementing some of the responses. Secondly, the bill will extend the sunset of the energy customer safety net provisions by another 12 months, and a number of other matters.” Reference: Parliament of Victoria, Parliamentary Debates (Hansard), Legislative Assembly, Fifty-Sixth parliament, First session, Tuesday, 18 September 2007 – Energy Legislation Further Amendment Bill Introduction and first reading

Erisk Net, 15/10/2007

17 October: Sydney temps cooler than expected

Burma, August 15: military increased price of fuel 500pc; CNG up 500pc, diesel doubled, petrol up 67pc

Soaring fuel prices trigger for Burmese protests: unfair quota system in place A surgeon in a public hospital in Burma earned $US15($17) a month and ran private clinics after hours to make ends meet, wrote Connie Levett in The Sydney Morning Herald (9/10/2007, p. 9).  Burma Heads of government departments earned $US14 a month until late 2005, when the Government increased salaries tenfold to stem dissent about the move to a new capital, Naypyidaw, in central Burma.

Burma military energy economics: bought fuel in US dollars; sold in the local currency, the kyat.

While the military reaped rich profits from selling quotas on the black market, the Ministry of Energy subsidised the price of petrol. It lost money on each transaction because the ministry bought fuel internationally in US dollars but sold in the local currency, the kyat.

Energy price riot backlash: Military rent-a-crowd pays 90c per rioter; 1000 people remain in custody at unknown locations in Burma

About 1000 people remained in custody at unknown locations in Burma since last month’s rallies, and concern for their safety had grown, reported The Australian (15/10/2007, p. 10).

How new NSW gas-fired peakers changed price spikes in 2001 and 200

How new NSW gas-fired peakers changed price spikes in 2001 and 2002 A chart showing standard deviation in the electricity pool price per quarter contained in a report “Securing Private Investment in New Generation in New South Wales” prepared by Morgan Stanley for the Owen Inquiry also demonstrated the commissioning of gas-fired peakers during 2001 and 2002.

Reference: Morgan Stanley, Report to the Owen Inquiry: Securing Private Investment in New Generation in New South Wales, 31 August, 2007.

Tuesday, 16 October: One LRC omission and one addition for Qld in MT PASA list for week to 16 October

NEMMCO made two changes in the list for low reserve condition (LRC) in the medium term projected assessment of system adequacy (MT PASA) issued at 1314EST on Tuesday, 16 October following one change the previous week.

Tuesday, 16 October: Tas goes negative with 10 trading intervals between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh

Tasmania recorded negative prices of between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh in 10 30-minute trading intervals on Tuesday, 16 October. From morning to early afternoon: The negative prices started in the 0900EST interval and continued though until the 1400EST interval, with only one positive price in this period.

Range of negative prices: There were two negative prices between minus $100 and minus $200, two between minus $300 and minus $400, one between minus $400 and minus $500, 1 between minus $600 and minus $700, 1 between minus $800 and minus $900 and three over minus $900 – two at minus $999.67/MWh and one at minus $999.68/MWh.

Average at minus $96.41/MWh: These 10 trading intervals forced Tasmania’s average price for the day down to minus $96.41/MWh.

Highest price of day, too: Tasmania also recorded the day’s highest price for the NEM regions of $69.96/MWh in the 0630EST interval.

Demand up: Maximum demand of 1392MW in the 1930EST interval was up 87MW (6.7 per cent) on Monday.

Reference: National Price for Tasmania for one day, Tuesday 16 October, in Price/Demand section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Erisk Net, 17/10/2007

Wednesday, 17 October: Tas in about turn: Spike to $8000.16/MWh in morning trading interval tipped after 10 negative price intervals on Tuesda

The NEMMCO predispatch at 6.53 a.m. on Wednesday, 17 October predicted a spike to $8000.16/MWh for the 30-minute trading interval ended 0900EST. Average price of $191.13/MWh expected: This large spike is expected to be enough to push Tasmania’s average price to $191.13/MWh following an average of minus $96.41/MWh on Tuesday when there were 10 negative price intervals with prices ranging from minus $158.68/MWh to $999.68/MWh.

Demand up: Tasmania’s maximum demand is predicted to continue rising, up 72MW (5.2 per cent) to 1464MW following an 87MW rise on Tuesday. Tasmania is the only NEM region expected to register an increase in maximum demand on Wednesday.

Reference: Pool Price for Tasmania in NEMMCO predispatch at 6.53 a.m. on Wednesday in User Defined section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Market report for Sunday, 14 October: Multiple negative price intervals knock Tas average down 44pc, with NSW, Vic, SA and Qld falling 23-32pc to $10.55-$22.00/MWh range on falling demand

Eleven successive negative price intervals from the start of the trading day in the 0430EST interval knocked Tasmania’s average price down 44 per cent, with NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland falling 23-32 per cent to a range of $10.55-$22.00/MWh.

Market forecast for Monday, 15 October: Average prices down 26-39pc to $25.43-$28.03/MWh range on falling demand

Average prices are expected to fall 26-39 per cent on Friday, the previous week day, to a range of $25.43-28.03/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to fall 874MW (3.3 per cent) to 26,918MW, with falls in all regions.
The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 15-28 degrees (11-23 on Sunday); Melbourne 13-27 degrees (11-23); Adelaide 13-29 degrees (9-21); Brisbane 15-28 degrees (15-24); and Hobart 11-21 degrees (10-20). 6.31 a.m. predispatch forecast: The following are the forecast prices and demands for the NEM regions at the predispatch at 6.31 a.m. today.

• NSW: The predicted average price is $28.03/MWh, down $9.75/MWh (26 per cent) on the $37.78/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $38.29/MWh. Average demand is expected to be 8719MW, up 78MW (0.9 per cent) on Friday’s 8641MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 9959MW, up 198MW (2.0 per cent) on Friday’s 9761MW.

• Victoria: The forecast average price is $26.51/MWh, down $14.38/MWh (35 per cent) on the $40.90/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $37.72/MWh. Average demand is predicted to be down 236MW (3.9 per cent) to 5860MW on Friday’s 6096MW while maximum demand is forecast to be 6499MW, down 240MW (3.6 per cent)on Friday’s 6739MW.

• South Australia: The expected average price is $27.61/MWh, down $12.02/MWh (30 per cent) on the $39.63/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is predicted to be $35.39/MWh. Average demand is forecast to be down 27MW (1.9 per cent) to 1386MW on Friday’s 1413MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1575MW, down 51MW (3.1 per cent) on Friday’s 1626MW.

• Queensland: The predicted average price is $25.43/MWh, down $16.51/MWh (39 per cent) on the $41.94/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $35.42/MWh. Average demand is expected to be down 299MW (4.9 per cent) to 5764MW on Friday’s 6063MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 6569MW, down 703MW (9.7 per cent) on Friday’s 7272MW.

• Tasmania: The forecast average price is $28.03/MWh, down $11.54/MWh (29 per cent) on the $39.57/MWh on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $48.82/MWh. Average demand is predicted to drop 36MW (3.2 per cent) to 1103MW on Friday’s 1139MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1295MW, down 41MW (3.1 per cent) on the 1336MW on Friday.

Single Infoserver only on Tuesday: NEMMCO advised that routine maintenance work required on the MMS production Infoservers meant a single Infoserver would be in use between 0930EST and 1400EST on Tuesday, 16 October. It said no impact was expected.

The weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued the following weather outlook for the following three days. In addition, it issued the following forecast for the coming day’s clear sky maximum UV (ultraviolet radiation) index for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. The BOM has three categories for forecasts relating to cloud cover: Clear/scattered, when more than half the sky is clear of cloud; Broken, when there are some breaks in cloud but more than half the sky is covered; and Overcast, when the sky is totally covered in cloud.

• The forecast for Sydney today is fine and sunny with an extreme clear sky UV index of 11 and a temperature range of 15-28 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine with an an afternoon southerly change and a temperature range of 17-31. A mostly fine day is expected on Wednesday with a temperature range of 13-19.

• The forecast for Melbourne today is for a fine day with a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 13-27 degrees. A few showers are forecast for tomorrow with a temperature range of 12-27. Wednesday should be fine with a temperature range of 9-20.

• The forecast for Adelaide today is fine and sunny with a wind change, a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 17-29 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and partly cloudy with a temperature range of 11-19. Wednesday is expected to be fine and sunny with a temperature range of 8-26.

• The forecast for Brisbane today and tomorrow is fine with a very high clear sky UV index of 10 today and temperature ranges of 15-28 degrees today and 15-31 tomorrow. Wednesday should be mostly fine with a temperature range of 16-26.

• The forecast for Hobart today is mainly fine and windy with a high clear sky UV index of 6 and a temperature range of 11-21 degrees. The forecast for tomorrow is for showers, mountain snow and a temperature range of 6-12. The forecast for Wednesday is becoming fine with a temperature range of 4-14.

Erisk Net, 15/10/2007

Market report for Friday, 12 October: Spike-free Qld drops 68pc, with Vic, SA and Tas up 5-9pc and NSW down 2pc to $39.57-$41.94/MWh on steady demand

With the effect of storms moderating in the south-east, Queensland had its first spike-free day this week, resulting in average price falling 68 per cent. Average prices rose 5-9 per cent in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania and fell 2 per cent in NSW to an overall range of $39.57-$41.94/MWh.

Friday October 12: SE Qld storm possible, rain for NSW coast

Brisbane, Friday 12 October; max temp may touch 35C, afternoon storm-rain possible

Victoria, Friday 12 October: moderate temps, rain, humid in Melbourne

Thursday 11 October: Queensland price spiked past $3000/MWh as NSW-Qld flow dipped to $250MW

Spike prices past $3000/MWh in Queensland

Iron ore prices forecast to rise by between 20 per cent and 50 per cent after BHP abandons contract and goes for spot price, for new sales

Analysts predict iron ore prices to rise by between 20 per cent and 50 per cent — consensus estimates fall at about the 30 per cent mark. According to Michael Vaughan, in The Australian Financial Review, (4/10/2007), p. 15, BHP Billiton would be able to add more than $US500 million ($563 million) to its pretax profit by selling its additional iron ore production in 2007-08 on the spot market should it not convince customers to compensate it for the reduced freight costs of its iron ore.

Indicators suggest a move in the spot price of uranium to $US90 a pound by early 2008; up to $US120 a pound by late 2008

John Wilson, managing director, Resource Capital Research, Warwick Grigor, managing director, Far East Capital, a Sydney-based private investment bank specialising in the resources sector, and Michael Angwin, executive director, Australian Uranium Association, answered questions about the price of uranium, reported The Australian Financial Review (10/10/2007, p. 34).

Spot iron ore $US110 a tonne compared with the Australian contract price of $US52 a tonne; crude oil continues to trade above $US80 a barrel: analysts predict contract price rises up to 40pc for iron ore in 2008-09

Spot iron ore [Indian spot at port India, free on board] was trading at more than $US110 a tonne, compared with the Australian contract price of $US52 a tonne, according to Stephen Wyatt in Shanghai, writing in The Australian Financial Review, (8/10/2007, p. 23).

Market forecast for Thursday, 11 October: Average prices up 1-3pc in NSW and Vic, down 1-68pc in SA, Qld and Tas to $31.090$36.48/MWh range on higher demand

Average prices are expected to rise 1-3 per cent in NSW and Victoria and fall 1-68 per cent in South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania to a range of $31.09-$36.48/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be up 229MW (0.9 per cent) to 26,304, with rises in all regions except Tasmania.

Wednesday, 10 October: Seventh day of spikes in Qld with top price of $3407.42/MWh

Queensland recorded a top price of $3407.42/MWh in three spike intervals on Wednesday, 10 October, the seventh successive day of spikes in the region.

Afternoon and evening spikes: The $3407.42/MWh spike came in the 30-minute trading interval ended 1700EST and was followed by spikes of $164.81/MWh in the 1900EST interval and $111.55/MWh in the 1930EST interval.

$10,000 dispatch price review: The $3407.42/MWh top price came in the interval when there was a $10,000 energy price published for the 1650EST dispatch interval, which is subject to review.

Directions issued to three participants: Storms continued throughout Queensland, resulting in a number of credible contingencies being declared and NEMMCO issuing directions to three participants to maintain power system security.

Demand down: Queensland maximum demand was down 184MW (2.7 per cent) to 6717MW on Tuesday’s 6901MW.

Reference: National Price for Queensland for one day, Wednesday 10 October, in Price/Demand section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Nickel prices average over US$46 600 a tonne in the first six months of 2007, a 90 per cent increase on the average price in 2006 (US$24 250)

Australian Commodities, Vol. 14 No. 3, September Quarter reported in May, prices reached a record of $54 200 a tonne, which reflected global supply constraints and increased demand, particularly from China. Prices have since eased and in early September nickel prices were trading in the range US$26 000 – 30 000 a tonne.

Goldman Sachs JBWere predict a multi-year, three-phase, forecast “super-spike” band from $US 105 a barrel to $US 135 a barrel

Goldman Sachs JBWere said that recent rises in the oil price were the second phase of a multi-year, three-phase “super-spike” era, underpinned by the struggle of oil suppliers to catch up with growth in demand, reported The Australian Financial Review, (24/9/2007, p. 25).

Natural gas and renewable generation options, combined with demand side measures, to meet demand for electrical energy services at tenth to half greenhouse-intensity of a coal-fired power station using super-critical technology

In a submission to the Owen Inquiry into Electricity Supply in NSW, energy and environment consultant George Wilkenfeld said the rapid enhancement of demand side programs, the introduction of carbon pricing and strengthening the support for renewables and small-scale generation, along with increasing net imports from Victorian and Queensland, should delay the need for new baseload generation.

Market report for week to Saturday, 29 September: Spikes push Qld average price up 9pc, with NSW, Vic SA and Qld down 5-9pc to $40.61-$54.90/MWh range on weaker demand

Spikes on three days with top prices between $153.12/MWh and $1710.58/MWh pushed up Queensland’s average price by 9 per cent while the spike-free regions of NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania fell 5-9 per cent to an overall range of $40.61-$54.90/MWh.

Market report for Friday, 28 September: Spikes push Qld average price up 4pc with Vic and SA rising 4-7pc, Tas steady and NSW down 1pc to $43.83-$59.72/MWh range on firmer demand

Spikes in Queensland pushed its average price up 4 per cent while Victoria and South Australia rose 4-7 per cent, Tasmania remained steady and NSW fell nearly 1 per cent to an overall range of $43.83-$59.72/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 186MW (0.7 per cent) to 26,156MW, with rises in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland.

Canberra may be hit by bushfires, on same scale as 2003 inferno, every eight years by 2050, says CSIRO climate-change study

Canberra could be hit by catastrophic bushfires on the same scale as the 2003 inferno every eight years by 2050, according to a new study on the impacts of climate change, reported The Canberra Times (27/9/2007, p.3). Dramatic predictions: The number of days of extreme fire danger each year could increase by 65 per cent by 2020 and up to 300 per cent by 2050. The dramatic predictions were made in a report prepared for the Climate Institute by the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. The Australian Conservation Foundation described the report as a wake-up call on global warming. A new bushfire strategic management plan was being developed and updated with information about the increased risks. “Climate projections indicate very extreme and catastrophic fire danger levels may become much more common,” the report said. “In Canberra, if the rate of global warming is low, the number of extreme days increases around 8-10 per cent by 2020, and 17-25 per cent by 2050. If the rate of global warming is high, the number of extreme days rises 25-42 per cent by 2020 and 137-221 per cent, around double to triple.”

Destruction in 2003: The report said a catastrophic rating was comparable to the weather when the firestorm engulfed parts of Canberra on January 18, 2003, killing four people and destroying almost 500 homes. For example, the recent increase at Amberley in Queensland was eight times that projected by the most severe warming scenarios by 2020 while in Canberra and Melbourne it has been twice as large. The report considered the scenario of low global warming, with a temperature rise of 0.7 degrees, and high global warming producing a 2.9 degree rise.

Bad news for Canberra: “Climate projections indicate very extreme and catastrophic fire danger levels may become much more common,” it said. Very extreme days occur now every two to 11 years but would occur twice as often by 2020. “By 2050, high global warming scenarios indicated a four to five fold increase in frequency of very extreme fire weather across much of southern and eastern Australia,” it said. “By 2050, Canberra may experience catastrophic fire weather every eight to 17 years.”

Victorian Minister for Energy and Resources seeks suggestions for fair feed in tariff for small green generation P

eter Batchelor Victorian Minister for Energy and Resources said In Victoria’s Legislative Assembly on 19 July 2007 that small-scale generators of electricity should get a fair and reasonable price for any excess electricity they generate beyond their own needs and feed back into the grid. Initiative for small players: His Bill applied in particular to those generating less than 100 kilowatts, such as small businesses, schools, or other small-scale establishments, and that had been dealt with in this initiative.

Reference: Peter Batchelor, Minister for Energy and Resources, Legislative Assembly, Victoria, 19 July 2007.

LNG plans may raises SE grid gas-price: Santos requires 4,000-5,500PJ; Arrow at least 1,000PJ, three times current level of CSG production

Santos and Arrow Energy had recently announced proposals for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects in Gladstone, noted the Owen Inquiry into Electricity Supply in NSW, Availabiltiy and Cost of Gas for NSW Baseload Generation (31/7/2007).