Energy market turnover slumps $42m (23.7pc) to $135m in week to 1 September, lowest total of financial year, AER analysis shows
Energy market turnover slumped $42 million (23.7 per cent) to $135 million to the lowest total of the 2007/08 financial year, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) said in its market analysis for the week from 26 August to 1 September.
Down $25 million on previous lowest total: The $135 million turnover was down $25 million on the previous lowest figure of $160 million in the week ending 18 August.
Ancillary services costs drop $128,000: The cost of ancillary services continued to fall, dropping $128,000 (19.5 per cent) to $527,000, compared to $655,000 the previous week. The $527,000 represented 0.4 per cent of the week’s total energy market turnover.
Average spot prices also down: The AER analysis also showed that spot prices averaged between $34/MWh in Queensland and $38/MWh in South Australia, compared to a range of $41/MWh in Queensland and $45/MWh in South Australia the previous week.
Turnover and ancillary service cost statistics: The following table shows weekly energy market turnover and ancillary services costs from the start of the 2007/08 financial year, with the weekly figures for June given for comparison purposes:
| Week ending | Energy turnover | Ancillary services cost |
Price forecasts more accurate:The AER analysis showed significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 62 (18.5 per cent) of the 336 30-minute trading intervals, down from 85 trading intervals the previous week.
Demand forecasts: Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in about 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in Tasmania and South Australia, occurring in about 33 per cent of trading interval
Reference: Australian Energy Regulator (AER) market analysis for week Sunday, 26 August to Saturday, 1 September. 5 September. Address: Level 11, The Tower, 360 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne Central. Melbourne. Vic. 3000. GPO Box 520, Melbourne. Vic. 3001. Phone: (03) 9290 1444. Fax: (03) 9290 1457.
http://www.aer.gov.au
Erisk Net, 12/9/2007
Market forecast for Friday, 14 September: Average prices up 1-7pc in SA and Tas, down 4-11pc in NSW, Vic and Qld to $43.48-$52.13/MWh range
Average prices are expected to rise 1-7 per cent in South Australia and Tasmania and fall 4-11 per cent in NSW, Victoria and Queensland to a range of $43.48-$52.13/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be up 161MW (0.7 per cent) to 26,522MW, with rises in NSW, South Australia and Tasmania and falls in Victoria and Queensland. The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 14-28 degrees (11-23 on Thursday); Melbourne 13-18 degrees (9-21); Adelaide 11-17 degrees (14-24); Brisbane 14-28 degrees (13-25); and Hobart 10-16 degrees (7-18).
6.15 a.m. predispatch forecast: The following are the forecast prices and demands for the NEM regions at the predispatch at 6.15 a.m. today:
• NSW: The predicted average price is $46.79/MWh, down $4.70/MWh (9 per cent) on the $51.49/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is forecast to be $69.46/MWh. Average demand is expected to rise 55MW (0.6 per cent) to 8955MW on Thursday’s 8900MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 10,390MW, up 253MW (2.5 per cent) on Thursday’s 10,137MW.
• Victoria: The forecast average price is $44.77/MWh, down $1.96/MWh (4 per cent) on the $46.738/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is expected to be $62.08/MWh. Average demand is predicted to fall 8MW to 6024MW on Thursday’s 6032MW while maximum demand is forecast to be 6713MW, down 21MW (0.3 per cent) on Thursday’s 6734MW.
• South Australia: The expected average price is $43.48/MWh, up $0.62/MWh (1 per cent) on the $42.86/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is predicted to be $59.90/MWh. Average demand is forecast to be 1440MW, up 64MW (4.7 per cent) on the 1376MW on Thursday while maximum demand is expected to be 1751MW, up 158MW (9.9 per cent) on Thursday’s 1593MW.
• Queensland: The predicted average price is $49.42/MWh, down $6.05/MWh (11 per cent) on the spike-affected $55.47/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is forecast to be $71.50/MWh. Average demand is expected to be 5678MW, down 31MW (0.5 per cent) on the 5709MW of Thursday while maximum demand is predicted to be 6315MW, down 172MW (2.7 per cent) on Thursday’s 6487MW.
• Tasmania: The forecast average price is $52.13/MWh, up $3.42/MWh (7 per cent) on the $48.71/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is expected to be $62.10/MWh. Average demand is predicted to be 1151MW, up 33MW (3.0 per cent) on the 1118MW on Thursday while maximum demand is forecast to be 1332MW, up 37MW (2.9 per cent) on Thursday’s 1295MW.
The weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued the following weather outlook for the following three days. In addition, it issued the following forecast for the coming day’s clear sky maximum UV (ultraviolet radiation) index for 1 p.m. (when the sun’s radiation was most intense) for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. The BOM has three categories for forecasts relating to cloud cover: Clear/scattered, when more than half the sky is clear of cloud; Broken, when there are some breaks in cloud but more than half the sky is covered; and Overcast, when the sky is totally covered in cloud.
• The forecast for Sydney today is mostly fine and windy with a moderate clear sky UV index of 5 and a temperature range of 14-28 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and mostly sunny with a temperature range of 14-21. Sunday is expected to be fine with a temperature range of 11-23.
• The forecast for Melbourne today is for a few showers with a moderate clear sky UV index of 4 and a temperature range of 13-18 degrees. The forecast for tomorrow is for a shower or two clearing with a temperature range of 9-18. The forecast for Sunday is for rain later with a temperature range of 10-19.
• The forecast for Adelaide today is for an early shower or two with a moderate clear sky UV index of 4 and a temperature range of 11-17 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and partly cloudy with a temperature range of 6-21. The forecast for Sunday is for a shower or two developing with a temperature range of 12-20.
• The forecast for Brisbane today and tomorrow is for a possible shower or storm with a high clear sky UV index of 7 today and temperature ranges of 14-28 degrees on both days. Sunday should be fine with a temperature range of 13-27.
• The forecast for Hobart today is for rain periods with a moderate clear sky UV index of 3 and a temperature range of 10-16 degrees. A shower or two is expected tomorrow with a temperature range of 6-14. The forecast for Sunday is for late rain with a temperature range of 6-17.
Erisk Net, 14/9/2007
