List of privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia

Inquiry identifies privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia

A report prepared for the Owen Inquiry by Morgan Stanley lists four privately-owned merchant portfolio generators in Australia. Reference: Morgan Stanley, Report to the Owen Inquiry: Securing Private Investment in New Generation in New South Wales, 31 August, 2007. 16/10/2007

Open interest contracts jump 882 (2.3pc) to 39,063 in week to 15 October, d-cypha Trade summary shows

Open interest contracts rose by 882 (2.3 per cent) to 39,063 in the week to Monday, 15 October after falling by 4081 to 38,181 the previous week, according to figures supplied in a media release by the d-cypha Trade/Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE).

17 October: cool weather for Victoria

How new NSW gas-fired peakers changed price spikes in 2001 and 200

How new NSW gas-fired peakers changed price spikes in 2001 and 2002 A chart showing standard deviation in the electricity pool price per quarter contained in a report “Securing Private Investment in New Generation in New South Wales” prepared by Morgan Stanley for the Owen Inquiry also demonstrated the commissioning of gas-fired peakers during 2001 and 2002.

Reference: Morgan Stanley, Report to the Owen Inquiry: Securing Private Investment in New Generation in New South Wales, 31 August, 2007.

Market report for Tuesday, 16 October: 10 negative price intervals see Tas with minus $96.41/MWh as NSW, Vic, SA and Qld rise 11-13pc to $31.36-$34.84/MWh range on higher demand

Ten negative price trading intervals with prices between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh resulted in Tasmania recording an average of minus $96.41/MWh, with NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland up 11-13 per cent to a range of $31.36-$34.84/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 712MW (2.7 per cent) with rises in all regions, led by the 316MW increase in NSW.

Tuesday, 16 October: One LRC omission and one addition for Qld in MT PASA list for week to 16 October

NEMMCO made two changes in the list for low reserve condition (LRC) in the medium term projected assessment of system adequacy (MT PASA) issued at 1314EST on Tuesday, 16 October following one change the previous week.

Tuesday, 16 October: Tas goes negative with 10 trading intervals between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh

Tasmania recorded negative prices of between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh in 10 30-minute trading intervals on Tuesday, 16 October. From morning to early afternoon: The negative prices started in the 0900EST interval and continued though until the 1400EST interval, with only one positive price in this period.

Range of negative prices: There were two negative prices between minus $100 and minus $200, two between minus $300 and minus $400, one between minus $400 and minus $500, 1 between minus $600 and minus $700, 1 between minus $800 and minus $900 and three over minus $900 – two at minus $999.67/MWh and one at minus $999.68/MWh.

Average at minus $96.41/MWh: These 10 trading intervals forced Tasmania’s average price for the day down to minus $96.41/MWh.

Highest price of day, too: Tasmania also recorded the day’s highest price for the NEM regions of $69.96/MWh in the 0630EST interval.

Demand up: Maximum demand of 1392MW in the 1930EST interval was up 87MW (6.7 per cent) on Monday.

Reference: National Price for Tasmania for one day, Tuesday 16 October, in Price/Demand section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Erisk Net, 17/10/2007

Wednesday, 17 October: Tas in about turn: Spike to $8000.16/MWh in morning trading interval tipped after 10 negative price intervals on Tuesda

The NEMMCO predispatch at 6.53 a.m. on Wednesday, 17 October predicted a spike to $8000.16/MWh for the 30-minute trading interval ended 0900EST. Average price of $191.13/MWh expected: This large spike is expected to be enough to push Tasmania’s average price to $191.13/MWh following an average of minus $96.41/MWh on Tuesday when there were 10 negative price intervals with prices ranging from minus $158.68/MWh to $999.68/MWh.

Demand up: Tasmania’s maximum demand is predicted to continue rising, up 72MW (5.2 per cent) to 1464MW following an 87MW rise on Tuesday. Tasmania is the only NEM region expected to register an increase in maximum demand on Wednesday.

Reference: Pool Price for Tasmania in NEMMCO predispatch at 6.53 a.m. on Wednesday in User Defined section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

2007 exposure: Snowy Hydro electricity swaps and swap like instruments

Reference: Snowyhydro Limited renewable energy ABN 17090 574 431, Consolidated Financial Report for the Financial Year, 2 July 2006 to 30 June 2007

Market report for Sunday, 14 October: Multiple negative price intervals knock Tas average down 44pc, with NSW, Vic, SA and Qld falling 23-32pc to $10.55-$22.00/MWh range on falling demand

Eleven successive negative price intervals from the start of the trading day in the 0430EST interval knocked Tasmania’s average price down 44 per cent, with NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland falling 23-32 per cent to a range of $10.55-$22.00/MWh.

Market forecast for Monday, 15 October: Average prices down 26-39pc to $25.43-$28.03/MWh range on falling demand

Average prices are expected to fall 26-39 per cent on Friday, the previous week day, to a range of $25.43-28.03/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to fall 874MW (3.3 per cent) to 26,918MW, with falls in all regions.
The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 15-28 degrees (11-23 on Sunday); Melbourne 13-27 degrees (11-23); Adelaide 13-29 degrees (9-21); Brisbane 15-28 degrees (15-24); and Hobart 11-21 degrees (10-20). 6.31 a.m. predispatch forecast: The following are the forecast prices and demands for the NEM regions at the predispatch at 6.31 a.m. today.

• NSW: The predicted average price is $28.03/MWh, down $9.75/MWh (26 per cent) on the $37.78/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $38.29/MWh. Average demand is expected to be 8719MW, up 78MW (0.9 per cent) on Friday’s 8641MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 9959MW, up 198MW (2.0 per cent) on Friday’s 9761MW.

• Victoria: The forecast average price is $26.51/MWh, down $14.38/MWh (35 per cent) on the $40.90/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $37.72/MWh. Average demand is predicted to be down 236MW (3.9 per cent) to 5860MW on Friday’s 6096MW while maximum demand is forecast to be 6499MW, down 240MW (3.6 per cent)on Friday’s 6739MW.

• South Australia: The expected average price is $27.61/MWh, down $12.02/MWh (30 per cent) on the $39.63/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is predicted to be $35.39/MWh. Average demand is forecast to be down 27MW (1.9 per cent) to 1386MW on Friday’s 1413MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1575MW, down 51MW (3.1 per cent) on Friday’s 1626MW.

• Queensland: The predicted average price is $25.43/MWh, down $16.51/MWh (39 per cent) on the $41.94/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $35.42/MWh. Average demand is expected to be down 299MW (4.9 per cent) to 5764MW on Friday’s 6063MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 6569MW, down 703MW (9.7 per cent) on Friday’s 7272MW.

• Tasmania: The forecast average price is $28.03/MWh, down $11.54/MWh (29 per cent) on the $39.57/MWh on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $48.82/MWh. Average demand is predicted to drop 36MW (3.2 per cent) to 1103MW on Friday’s 1139MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1295MW, down 41MW (3.1 per cent) on the 1336MW on Friday.

Single Infoserver only on Tuesday: NEMMCO advised that routine maintenance work required on the MMS production Infoservers meant a single Infoserver would be in use between 0930EST and 1400EST on Tuesday, 16 October. It said no impact was expected.

The weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued the following weather outlook for the following three days. In addition, it issued the following forecast for the coming day’s clear sky maximum UV (ultraviolet radiation) index for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. The BOM has three categories for forecasts relating to cloud cover: Clear/scattered, when more than half the sky is clear of cloud; Broken, when there are some breaks in cloud but more than half the sky is covered; and Overcast, when the sky is totally covered in cloud.

• The forecast for Sydney today is fine and sunny with an extreme clear sky UV index of 11 and a temperature range of 15-28 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine with an an afternoon southerly change and a temperature range of 17-31. A mostly fine day is expected on Wednesday with a temperature range of 13-19.

• The forecast for Melbourne today is for a fine day with a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 13-27 degrees. A few showers are forecast for tomorrow with a temperature range of 12-27. Wednesday should be fine with a temperature range of 9-20.

• The forecast for Adelaide today is fine and sunny with a wind change, a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 17-29 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and partly cloudy with a temperature range of 11-19. Wednesday is expected to be fine and sunny with a temperature range of 8-26.

• The forecast for Brisbane today and tomorrow is fine with a very high clear sky UV index of 10 today and temperature ranges of 15-28 degrees today and 15-31 tomorrow. Wednesday should be mostly fine with a temperature range of 16-26.

• The forecast for Hobart today is mainly fine and windy with a high clear sky UV index of 6 and a temperature range of 11-21 degrees. The forecast for tomorrow is for showers, mountain snow and a temperature range of 6-12. The forecast for Wednesday is becoming fine with a temperature range of 4-14.

Erisk Net, 15/10/2007

Market report for week to Saturday, 13 October: Storms, blackouts; Five days of spikes push Qld average price up 134pc, with Vic and Tas rising 1-11pc, SA steady and NSW down 5pc to overall $32.67-$111.53/MWh range on firmer demand

8 October Qld blackout spikes: Stanwell pool-price earnings of $10,592,156

Queensland Total Generator Income 1 day at http:// www.erisk.net ending Monday 8/10/2007 (4:00 am Trading) showed average pool price earnings as:

Market report for Thursday, 11 October: Lightning in SE Qld corridor, $10,000 energy prices, negative QNI settlement residues cause $3000-plus spikes: Average prices up 2-20pc to $36.42-$131.84/MWh range on rising demand

With lightning activity continuing in a south-eastern Queensland corridor from Bulli Creek to Calvale, $10,000 overconstrained energy prices and negative settlement residues exceeding the QNI interconnector threshold, Queensland had spikes for the eighth day in a row with a top price exceeding $3000/MWh for the second successive day. Average prices rose 2-20 per cent to a range of $36.42-$131.84/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 805MW (3.1 per cent) with rises in all regions except Tasmania. Top price of the day was the $3405.88/MWh in the 30-minute trading interval ended 2000EST, just under Wednesday’s top price o $3407.42/MWh. Queensland had the highest average price and Tasmania the lowest.

Market forecast for Friday, 12 October: Average prices up 3pc in Tas, steady in SA, down 2-74pc in NSW, Vic and Qld to $34.53-$37.97/MWh range on lower demand

Average prices are expected to rise 3 per cent in Tasmania, remain steady in Tasmania and fall 2-74 per cent in NSW, Victoria and Queensland to a range of $34.53-$37.97/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be down 387MW (1.4 per cent) to 26,493MW, with rises in Queensland and Tasmania and falls in NSW, Victoria and South Australia. The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 15-24 degrees (17-25 on Thursday); Melbourne 10-15 degrees (16-21); Adelaide 10-16 degrees (13-19); Brisbane 19-32 degrees (19-27); and Hobart 7-13 degrees (11-23).

Thursday, 11 October: Qld spikes with top price over $3000 for second day in row as lightning affects power lines in SE corridor

Queensland recorded a top price of $3405.68/MWh in late afternoon and evening spike intervals on Thursday, 11 October, just below the top price of $3407.42/MWh on Wednesday.

Market report for Thursday, 11 October: Lightning in SE Qld corridor, $10,000 energy prices, negative QNI settlement residues cause $3000-plus spikes: negative QNI settlement residues cause $3000-plus spikes: Average prices up 2-20pc to $36.42-$131.84/MWh range on rising demand

With lightning activity continuing in a south-eastern Queensland corridor from Bulli Creek to Calvale, $10,000 overconstrained energy prices and negative settlement residues exceeding the QNI interconnector threshold, Queensland had spikes for the eighth day in a row with a top price exceeding $3000/MWh for the second successive day. Average prices rose 2-20 per cent to a range of $36.42-$131.84/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 805MW (3.1 per cent) with rises in all regions except Tasmania.

Thursday, 11 October: Qld spikes with top price over $3000 for second day in row as lightning affects power lines in SE corridor

Queensland recorded a top price of $3405.68/MWh in late afternoon and evening spike intervals on Thursday, 11 October, just below the top price of $3407.42/MWh on Wednesday.

Friday October 12: SE Qld storm possible, rain for NSW coast

Friday 12 October: moderate max temps for NSW, VIC, SA

Brisbane, Friday 12 October; max temp may touch 35C, afternoon storm-rain possible

South Australia: Adelaide forecast, cool, damp, with heat spike ahead for Monday

Friday 12 October: no NEM spikes forecast by NEMMCO

Thursday 11 October: Queensland price spiked past $3000/MWh as NSW-Qld flow dipped to $250MW

Spike prices past $3000/MWh in Queensland

Market forecast for Wednesday, 10 October: Average prices up 1pc in SA, down 15-64pc in NSW, Vic, Qld and Tas to $27.39-$$32.94/MWh range on easing demand

Average prices are expected to rise 1 per cent in South Australia and fall 15-64 per cent in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania to a range of $27.39-$32.94/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be down 165MW (0.6 per cent) to 26,423MW, with rises in NSW and Queensland and falls in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals today are: Sydney 12-25 degrees (15-21 on Tuesday); Melbourne 8-24 degrees (8-18); Adelaide 15-22 degrees (8-24); Brisbane 18-27 degrees (20-29); and Hobart 6-18 degrees (6-15).

Market report for Tuesday, 9 October: Average prices up 5-6pc in NSW and Vic, down 5-75pc in SA, Qld and Tas to $31.61-$84.09/MWh range on falling demand: Lower Qld spikes

Smaller spikes saw Queensland’s average price plunge 75 per cent, with NSW and Victoria up 5-6 per cent and South Australia and Tasmania down 5-8 per cent to an overall $31.61-$84.09/MWh range. System-wide maximum demand was down 362MW (1.3 per cent) to 26,558MW, with falls in all regions. Top price of the day was the spike to $281.69 MWh in the 30-minute trading interval ended 1400EST. Queensland had the highest average price and South Australia the lowest.

Tuesday, 9 October: Smaller spikes with top price of $281.69/MWh on sixth straight day of Qld spikes

Queensland recorded a top price of $281.69/MWh in multiple spikes on Tuesday, 9 October.

Market report for Monday, 8 October: Multiple spikes in stormy Qld push average price up 365pc, with NSW steady and Vic, SA and Tas rising 2-40pc to $34.21-$331.83/MWh range on demand surge

Multiple spikes with a top price of $3439.83/MWh pushed Queensland’s average price up 365 per cent on a storm day while Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania rose 2-40 per cent and NSW remained steady on Friday, the previous week day, to a range of $34.21-$$331.83/MWh. System-wide maximum demand jumped 981MW (3.8 per cent) with rises in all regions, led by Queensland and Victoria. Queensland’s $3439.83/MWh top price of the day occurred in the 30-minute trading interval ended 1700EST, which covered the 1650EST dispatch interval when an energy price of $10,000 was published. Queensland had the highest average price and South Australia the lowest.

Market forecast for Tuesday, 9 October: Average prices up 2pc in NSW and Vic, down 5-86pc in SA, Qld and Tas to $32.55-$46.96/MWh range on easing demand

Average prices are expected to rise nearly 2 per cent in NSW and Victoria and fall 5-86 per cent in South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania to a range of $32.55-$46.96/MWh with far fewer and lower spikes in Queensland. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be down 149MW (0.6 per cent) to 26,801MW, with falls in all regions except NSW. The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 14-21 degrees (16-21 on Monday); Melbourne 8-19 degrees (7-18); Adelaide 8-24 degrees (7-19) ; Brisbane 19-30 degrees (19-30); and Hobart 6-15 degrees (5-14).