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Fed Senate Committee to report on Energy Efficiency Trading Scheme

The Senate Standing Committee on Economics was inquiring into the National Market Driven Energy Efficiency Target Bill 2007, reported The Australian (19/9/2007, p.2).

Friday 12 October: moderate max temps for NSW, VIC, SA

Brisbane, Friday 12 October; max temp may touch 35C, afternoon storm-rain possible

Market forecast for Thursday, 11 October: Average prices up 1-3pc in NSW and Vic, down 1-68pc in SA, Qld and Tas to $31.090$36.48/MWh range on higher demand

Average prices are expected to rise 1-3 per cent in NSW and Victoria and fall 1-68 per cent in South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania to a range of $31.09-$36.48/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be up 229MW (0.9 per cent) to 26,304, with rises in all regions except Tasmania.

Market forecast for Monday, 8 October: Average prices up 1-28c in NSW, Vic, SA and Tas, down 45pc in spike-free Qld to converging $$35.53-$39.00/MWh range on firmer demand

 

In the absence of spikes in Queensland and negative prices in Tasmania, average prices are expected to rise 1-28 per cent in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania and fall 45 per cent in Queensland on Friday, the previous week day, to a converging $35.53-$39.00/MWh range. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to jump 669MW (2.6 per cent) to 26,638MW, led by a 574MW rise in NSW, with smaller rises in Victoria and South Australia and falls in Queensland and Tasmania. The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 15-20 degrees (15-21 on Sunday); Melbourne 8-18 degrees (6-17); Adelaide 8-20 degrees (10-18); Brisbane 19-30 degrees (18-30); and Hobart 5-15 degrees (5-14).

Market report for week to Saturday, 6 October: Qld spikes, Tas negative prices as averages drop 13-42pc to $29.55-$47.68/MWh range on higher demand

 

Average prices dropped 13-42 per cent on the previous week to a range of $29.55-$47.68/MWh. Queensland had spikes on the last three days of the week with the $267.60/MWh in the 30-minute trading interval ended 1530EST Friday being the highest weekly price in the NEM. Tasmania’s average was dragged down by negative prices on Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Queensland had the highest average price and Tasmania the lowest. System-wide maximum demand rose 458MW (1.7 per cent) to 27,388MW, with rises in NSW, Queensland and Tasmania and falls in Victoria and South Australia.

Market report for Sunday, 7 October: Average prices down 2-19pc to $20.07-$50.80/MWh range on firmer demand: Spikes in Qld, negative price in Tas

Average prices dropped 2-19 per cent to a range of $20.07-$50.80/MWh on a day which saw spikes continue in Queensland for the fourth day in a row and a negative price interval in Tasmania. System-wide maximum demand was up 269MW (1.1 per cent) with rises in all regions except Tasmania. Top price of the day was the spike to $205.14/MWh in Queensland for the 30-minute trading interval ended 2030EST. Queensland had the highest average price and Tasmania the lowest.

Market report for Saturday, 6 October: Qld spikes continue with average prices up 28-69pc in Qld and Tas, down 8-15pc in NSW, Vic and SA to $24.64-$57.44/MWh range on higher demand

 

The third successive day of Queensland spikes pushed its average price up 69 per cent, with Tasmania up 28 per cent and NSW, Victoria and South Australia averages down 8-15 per cent on the previous Sunday, the nearest comparable weekend day, to a range of $24.64-$57.44/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 421MW (1.8 per cent) to 24,200, with rises in NSW, South Australia and Queensland and falls in Victoria and Tasmania. Top price of the day was a spike to $138.66/MWh in Queensland for the 30-minute trading interval ended 0830EST. Queensland had the highest average price and Tasmania the lowest.

Market report for Friday, 5 October: Qld spikes, Tas negative prices continue as averages jump 52pc in Qld, drop 4-13pc in NSW, Vic, SA and Tas to $28.68-$71.34/MWh range on falling demand

Spikes in Queensland and negative prices in Tasmania for the second day in a row were again the features of a day which saw Queensland average price jump 52 per cent with falls of 4-13 per cent in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania to a range of $28.68-$71.34/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was down 606MW (2.3 per cent) to 25,969MW with falls in all regions except Tasmania. Top price of the day was the spike to $267.60/MWh in Queensland for the 30-minute trading interval ended 1530EST. Queensland had the highest average price and Tasmania the lowest.

Former ACCC chair attacks Fed Govt reforms of predatory pricing laws: swinging pendulum too far in favour of small business

The former chair of the Aus­tralian Competition and Consumer Commission, Allan Fels, attacked the Federal Government’s reforms of predatory pricing laws, and said they have swung the pendu­lum too far in favour of small business and may drive up con­sumer prices, wrote Steven Scott in The Australian Financial Review (25/9/2007, p.8).

Effect of rising oil costs to be considered at first Cabinet chaired by new Queensland Premier Anna Bligh

A major new report warning of a looming social crisis because of rising oil costs was to be considered at the first Cabinet to be chaired by new Queens­land Premier Anna Bligh, reported The Courier Mail (17/9/2007, p. 9).

Libs have “four decades of advocating nuclear reactors”; if the coalition are re-elected later this year, those reactors will be progressed by the government, ALP MP says

ALP MP Brendan O’Connor, Parliamentary Secretary for Industrial Relations, Member for Gorton, said the Government should publicly announce the locations of the planned “25 nuclear reactors”, before the election, in a statement to the House of Representatives on 11 September 2007.

Seawater desalination costs over three Australian cities could vary from AUD $1.15 to $3.00 a cubic metre of product water (USD $0.95- 2.50)

Consultants to the Australian Prime Minister on water supply options for Australian cities noted that low cost water supply options depended on “favourable locations and situations” for the options, wrote the WWF’s Phil Dickie.

Carbon-exposure survey of Aus companies: BHP, Rio, BlueScope, Qantas account for half top-200 emissions

A survey of the carbon exposures of Australia’s top 200 listed companies conducted for institutional investor VicSuper found three out of four did not disclose comparable emissions data, wrote Peter Hannam in The Age (26/9/2007, p.2).

Market report for Wednesday, 26 September: Average prices up 64pc in Tas, down 16-24pc in NSW, Vic, SA and Qld to $38.04-$57.62/MWh range on higher demand

Average prices rose 64 per cent in Tasmania with the absence of negative prices and fell 16-24 per cent in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland to a range of $38.04-$57.62/MWh.

Prices averaged $247/MWh in NSW for the month compared to an average price of $33/MWh in June 2006, but demand was 3 per cent below last winter

Games were played in June, according to Tim Mendham, writing in The Australian Financial Review, 19/9/2007, p. 4.

Market forecast for Monday, 24 September: Average prices up 1-49pc to $52.13-$72.68/MWh range on higher demand: Spikes tipped for NSW and Qld

Average prices are expected to rise between 1-49 per cent on Friday, the previous week day, to a range of $52.13-$72.68/MWh, with multiple spikes in Queensland and small spikes in NSW. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to jump 603MW (3.3 per cent) to 26,579MW, with rises in NSW, South Australia and Queensland with Victoria and Tasmania steady. The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 10-18 degrees (9-18 on Sunday); Melbourne 11-19 degrees (6-21); Adelaide 7-23 degrees (19-20); Brisbane 11-24 degrees (13-22); and Hobart 8-16 degrees (3-18).

Failure scenarios at seven Sydney suburbs says EnergyAustralia: Lines from NSW Flemington zone substation overloaded in summer peak

NSW suburbs of Flemington, Homebush, Homebush Bay, Homebush West, Lidcombe, North Strathfield, Rookwood, and Strathfield were at risk of blackouts and demand side action would not work, argued EnergyAustralia and therefore it would spend $2.62M on distribution upgrades, ” to address the current constraints and to meet the forecast load demands.

Many Norwegian electricity users on ’spot market-related’ contracts; no price-controls in market, expert forum hears

An expert forum on electricity pricing in Melbourne last month was told that other markets, such as Britain and Norway (ranked No. 2 and No. 5 respectively), operated very differently and applied no price controls to the market, reported The Age (13/9/2007, p.B8).

Fallacy of complete deregulation: Indeed, a great proportion of Norwegian residential consumers were on so-called spot market-related contracts and Britain was introducing this product within weeks. A spot market offer for residential consumers was arguably the pin-up tariff of liberalised energy markets. Note that the Victorian market was hotter than its more liberalised and deregulated overseas counterparts. To argue that complete price deregulation was necessary to promote competition seemed to be a fallacy.

The Age, 13/9/2007, p. B8

AGL forecasts 2007/08 profit of up to $400m; targets 5000MW electricity, 4000PJ gas capacity

AGL spent $1.3 billion buying retail businesses in Queensland dur­ing 2006-07 and was about to start negotiating with Babcock & Brown on a potential $700 million buy-out of Western Australia’s AlintaAGL, reported The Australian Financial Review (23/8/2007, p.19).

Profit figures: AGL’s first net profit since it came into being after the old Australian Gas Light Co sold its transmission, distribution and asset management units to Alinta last October was $410.5 million. However, on a pro-forma basis, assuming the company had been in its current form for the entire period, the net profit was $325.6 million, in line with guid­ance, on revenue of $4.8 billion. AGL forecasted underlying profit in 2007-08 at the upper end of previous guidance of $380 million to $400 million, a rise of as much as 15 per cent.

Capacity targets: The company was targeting gener­ation capacity of 5000 megawatts of electricity and 4000 petajoules of gas, compared with 3600 megawatts and 1300 petajoules today.

The Australian Financial Review, 23/8/2007, p. 19

Energy users should not be disconnected due to incapacity to pay alone, says consumer group: RPWG must reconsider ‘informed consent’

The Consumer Action Law Centre (Consumer Action) responded to the Composite Consultation Paper (the Composite Paper) authored by Allens Arthur Robinson (AAR), and released by the Retail Policy Working Group (the RPWG) on 19 June 2007, in a submission by Gerard Brody, director of Policy and Campaigns (18/7/2007).

Important principles: “It is our view that the following three principles are sufficiently important to warrant legislative protection:

• that small consumers should have, as far as is reasonably practicable, uninterrupted access to energy supplies on regulated terms and conditions;

• that disconnection due to non-payment should be a last resort option, and that consumers should not be disconnected due to incapacity to pay alone; and

• that transfer in the competitive energy market should only occur where a consumer has provided explicit informed consent.

An essential service: “The first principle, relating to access, is now universally accepted. As energy is an essential service, access must be assured, particularly for consumers who may be less attractive to retailers due to their location, level of consumption or income. We note that the obligation to supply on regulated terms and conditions implements the first principle. The second principle, relating to disconnection, reflects a well-founded tenet that has developed over the course of the competitive energy market. Most recently, the Victorian Government released a policy statement stating that it ‘aims to ensure that no Victorian who is unable to pay their energy bill due to financial hardship is disconnected from supply’.”

Previously a problem: Brody said, “We note that, after deregulation of Victoria’s energy market, disconnections became a problem, and from 1999 to 2004, the rates of electricity disconnections doubled. Since that time, concerted efforts by governments, regulators, consumers and the community sector have contributed to reducing disconnection rates significantly in Victoria. These efforts have been in recognition that disconnection from an essential service can cause extreme physical and emotional distress. The third principle, relating to the competitive market, recognises that, to be effective, competition requires informed demand side participation. Without effective demand side participation, retailers will not be able to provide products and services that accord with consumer preferences.

Glaring omission: “One glaring omission from the Composite Paper is any consideration of the mandating of financial hardship policies, as has occurred in Victoria. In 2005, recognising that energy hardship was increasingly a problem, the Victorian Government established an Independent Committee of Inquiry into Energy Financial Hardship (the Committee of Inquiry). The Committee for Inquiry produced a detailed report which included a recommendation to government to require energy retailers to have financial hardship policies. The government implemented this recommendation through the Energy Legislation (Hardship, Metering and Other Matters) Act 2006 (Vic).

Categories of hardship: “Consumer Action believes that this legislation, together with the government’s policy statement that followed the Committee of Inquiry’s report, represents a significant advance in the regulation of retail energy businesses. This regulation recognises that energy hardship is a complex issue, and one that can cause significant detriment, not only to individual consumers but to society as a whole. Energy hardship primarily falls into three main categories:

• temporary hardship;

• chronic hardship; and

• energy inefficient households.

Temporary hardship results from a range of causes (due to loss of job, family emergency etc.) and presents problems as customers may not know of, or have experience dealing with, assistance schemes.

What is ‘informed consent’: “It is our view that informed consent consists of five principle components:

• information disclosure;

• capacity of the consumer to understand the information;

• genuine understanding by the consumer;

• that the transaction be completely voluntary; and

• that the decision to enter the arrangement/contract is made by the consumer.

Explicit consent ensures that the consent is verifiable and auditable (in writing signed by the customer or recorded by electronic communication). We believe that the RPWG must reconsider this issue, and ensure a definition of explicit informed consent that reflects the above is made clear in the Law and/or Rules,” Brody’s submission concluded.

Reference: Gerard Brody, Director, Policy and Campaigns. Tel: 03 96705088. Fax: 03 96296898. info@consumeraction.org.au
http://www.consumeraction.org.au

Erisk Net, 18/7/2007

Babcock & Brown Power proposes second 450MW Braemar station in Qld, subject to gas supplies; cost at $3.67/GJ

Babcock & Brown Power proposed a second 450MW Braemar station located adjacent to the existing station, noted ‘Fuel resource, new entry and generation costs in the NEM’, a report by ACIL Tasman for NEMMCO (27/3/2007).

Needs suitable gas supplies: The site already had approval for a total of 900MW of generation capacity; hence the necessary permits for stage 2 have already been achieved. Development of stage 2 would be dependent upon acquiring suitable gas supplies and an appropriate off-take agreement for the station’s output/hedge products and GECs. The projected delivered costs to the station were provided in the report. It had been assumed that the station would be developed as a traditional peaking station (capacity factor <5 per cent) rather than the higher-utilised stage 1 plant.

Reference: ‘Fuel resource, new entry and generation costs in the NEM’ Report 2 – Data and documentation. Draft Prepared for NEMMCO, ACIL Tasman – Economics Policy Strategy, 27 March 2007.

Erisk Net, 29/7/2007

Open interest contracts rise 224 (0.6pc) to 39,462 in week to 10 September, d-cypha Trade summary shows

Open interest contracts rose by 224 (0.6 per cent) to 39,462 in the week to Monday, 10 September after rising by 1126 (2.9 per cent) to 39,2388 the previous week, according to figures supplied in a media release by the d-cypha Trade/Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE).

Equivalent to about 100.59 million MWh: This equated to about 100.59 million megawatt hours (MWh) up 0.92MWH (0.9 per cent) on the 99.67 million MWh the previous week.

Trading in futures contracts plunge: Trading in futures contracts plunged by 1524 (65.1 per cent) to 816, after rising by 536 (29.7 per cent) to 2340 the previous week.

Composition of futures contracts: The futures contracts traded during the week comprised 661 base futures (2223 the previous week), 120 peak futures (92) and 35 caps (25).

Calendar options fall: Calendar options fell by 65 (48.1 per cent) to 70, compared to 135 the previous week. As with the previous week no quarterly options were traded.

Block trades up by 30: The volume of block trades at 600 was down 1110 was up by 30 (2.8 per cent) on the 1080 the previous week.

Big drop in total MWh traded: The total MWh traded fell by 3,950,031 (63.7 per cent) to 2,251,308 compared to a rise of 478,254 (8.4 per cent) to 6,201,339 the previous week.

Reference: Media release on electricity futures by d-cypha Trade. 10 September 2007. Address: Level 32, ABN AMRO Tower. 88 Phillip Street. Sydney. NSW. 2000. Phone: (02) 8211 0615. Fax: (02) 8211 0640.

Erisk Net, 11/9/2007

Energy market turnover continues downward trend with $10m (5.9pc) fall to new 2007/08 low of $160m in week to 18 August

Turnover in the energy market fell $10 million (5.9 per cent) to $160 million in the week from Sunday, 12 August to Saturday, 18 August, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) said in its weekly market analysis.

Lowest for financial year: The $160 million turnover was the lowest for the 2007/07 financial year.

Ancillary services cost reaches high for 2007/08: However, the cost of ancillary services for the week rose by $100,000 (5.9 per cent) to a new high for the financial year of $964,000.

Explanation for increase: In a footnote, the AER explained that the requirement for raise contingency services was calculated in real-time and was proportional to the largest MW output from a single generating unit. Queensland’s 750MW capacity Kogan Creek was the largest generator in the NEM, followed by a number of NSW generators that normally generate at a maximum of around 660MW, but had recently increased to around 700MW at times.

Average spot prices down: The AER said spot prices for the week averaged between $35/MWh in Tasmania and $45/MWh in South Australia, compared to between $39/MWh in Tasmania and $43/MWh in Victoria the previous week.

Turnover and ancillary service cost statistics: The following table shows weekly energy market turnover and ancillary services costs from the start of the 2007/08 financial year, with the weekly figures for June given for comparison purposes:

Week ending

Energy turnover

Ancillary services cost

Forecast prices wrong more often: The analysis said significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 131 (39) per cent of the 336 30-minute trading intervals, up sharply on the 99 the previous week.

Demand forecast results: Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia, occurring in about 33 per cent all trading intervals.

Reference: Australian Energy Regulator (AER) market analysis for week Sunday, 12 August to Saturday, 18 August. 3 September. Address: Level 11, The Tower, 360 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne Central. Melbourne. Vic. 3000. GPO Box 520, Melbourne. Vic. 3001. Phone: (03) 9290 1444. Fax: (03) 9290 1457.
http://www.aer.gov.au

Erisk Net, 8/9/2007

Energy market turnover up $17m (10.6pc) to $177m in week ending 25 August following lowest total of financial year, AER analysis shows

Energy market turnover rose $17 million (10.6 per cent) to $177 million following the previous week’s lowest total of the 2007/08 financial year, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) said in its analysis of the week from 19 August to 25 August. Up $7 million on week ended 11 August: The turnover was also up $7 million on the $170 million turnover in the week ended 11 August.

The AER analysis show the cost of ancillary services for the week fell $309,000 (32.1 per cent) to $655,000 on the $964,000 the previous week, which was the highest total of the financial year.

Slight rise at lower end of average spot prices:Spot prices for the week averaged between $41/MWh in Queensland and $45/MWh in South Australia, compared to an average of between $35/MWh in Tasmania and $45/MWh in South Australia the previous week.

Turnover and ancillary service cost statistics: The following table shows weekly energy market turnover and ancillary services costs from the start of the 2007/08 financial year, with the weekly figures for June given for comparison purposes:

Week ending

Energy turnover

Ancillary services cost

Improvement in accuracy of forecast prices: Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 85 (25 per cent) of the 336 30-minute trading intervals, compared to 131 (39 per cent) the previous week.

Demand forecasts: Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in Tasmania, occurring in about 33 per cent of all trading intervals.

Reference: Australian Energy Regulator (AER) market analysis for week Sunday, 19 August to Saturday, 25 August. 10 September Address: Level 11, The Tower, 360 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne Central. Melbourne. Vic. 3000. GPO Box 520, Melbourne. Vic. 3001. Phone: (03) 9290 1444. Fax: (03) 9290 1457.
http://www.aer.gov.au

Erisk Net, 12/9/2007

Electricity Week 14 September 2007

Energy market turnover slumps $42m (23.7pc) to $135m in week to 1 September, lowest total of financial year, AER analysis shows

Energy market turnover slumped $42 million (23.7 per cent) to $135 million to the lowest total of the 2007/08 financial year, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) said in its market analysis for the week from 26 August to 1 September.

Down $25 million on previous lowest total: The $135 million turnover was down $25 million on the previous lowest figure of $160 million in the week ending 18 August.

Ancillary services costs drop $128,000: The cost of ancillary services continued to fall, dropping $128,000 (19.5 per cent) to $527,000, compared to $655,000 the previous week. The $527,000 represented 0.4 per cent of the week’s total energy market turnover.

Average spot prices also down: The AER analysis also showed that spot prices averaged between $34/MWh in Queensland and $38/MWh in South Australia, compared to a range of $41/MWh in Queensland and $45/MWh in South Australia the previous week.

Turnover and ancillary service cost statistics: The following table shows weekly energy market turnover and ancillary services costs from the start of the 2007/08 financial year, with the weekly figures for June given for comparison purposes:

Week ending

Energy turnover

Ancillary services cost

Price forecasts more accurate:The AER analysis showed significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 62 (18.5 per cent) of the 336 30-minute trading intervals, down from 85 trading intervals the previous week.

Demand forecasts: Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in about 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in Tasmania and South Australia, occurring in about 33 per cent of trading interval

Reference: Australian Energy Regulator (AER) market analysis for week Sunday, 26 August to Saturday, 1 September. 5 September. Address: Level 11, The Tower, 360 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne Central. Melbourne. Vic. 3000. GPO Box 520, Melbourne. Vic. 3001. Phone: (03) 9290 1444. Fax: (03) 9290 1457.
http://www.aer.gov.au

Erisk Net, 12/9/2007

Market forecast for Friday, 14 September: Average prices up 1-7pc in SA and Tas, down 4-11pc in NSW, Vic and Qld to $43.48-$52.13/MWh range

Average prices are expected to rise 1-7 per cent in South Australia and Tasmania and fall 4-11 per cent in NSW, Victoria and Queensland to a range of $43.48-$52.13/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be up 161MW (0.7 per cent) to 26,522MW, with rises in NSW, South Australia and Tasmania and falls in Victoria and Queensland. The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 14-28 degrees (11-23 on Thursday); Melbourne 13-18 degrees (9-21); Adelaide 11-17 degrees (14-24); Brisbane 14-28 degrees (13-25); and Hobart 10-16 degrees (7-18).

6.15 a.m. predispatch forecast: The following are the forecast prices and demands for the NEM regions at the predispatch at 6.15 a.m. today:

• NSW: The predicted average price is $46.79/MWh, down $4.70/MWh (9 per cent) on the $51.49/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is forecast to be $69.46/MWh. Average demand is expected to rise 55MW (0.6 per cent) to 8955MW on Thursday’s 8900MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 10,390MW, up 253MW (2.5 per cent) on Thursday’s 10,137MW.

• Victoria: The forecast average price is $44.77/MWh, down $1.96/MWh (4 per cent) on the $46.738/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is expected to be $62.08/MWh. Average demand is predicted to fall 8MW to 6024MW on Thursday’s 6032MW while maximum demand is forecast to be 6713MW, down 21MW (0.3 per cent) on Thursday’s 6734MW.

• South Australia: The expected average price is $43.48/MWh, up $0.62/MWh (1 per cent) on the $42.86/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is predicted to be $59.90/MWh. Average demand is forecast to be 1440MW, up 64MW (4.7 per cent) on the 1376MW on Thursday while maximum demand is expected to be 1751MW, up 158MW (9.9 per cent) on Thursday’s 1593MW.

• Queensland: The predicted average price is $49.42/MWh, down $6.05/MWh (11 per cent) on the spike-affected $55.47/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is forecast to be $71.50/MWh. Average demand is expected to be 5678MW, down 31MW (0.5 per cent) on the 5709MW of Thursday while maximum demand is predicted to be 6315MW, down 172MW (2.7 per cent) on Thursday’s 6487MW.

• Tasmania: The forecast average price is $52.13/MWh, up $3.42/MWh (7 per cent) on the $48.71/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is expected to be $62.10/MWh. Average demand is predicted to be 1151MW, up 33MW (3.0 per cent) on the 1118MW on Thursday while maximum demand is forecast to be 1332MW, up 37MW (2.9 per cent) on Thursday’s 1295MW.

The weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued the following weather outlook for the following three days. In addition, it issued the following forecast for the coming day’s clear sky maximum UV (ultraviolet radiation) index for 1 p.m. (when the sun’s radiation was most intense) for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. The BOM has three categories for forecasts relating to cloud cover: Clear/scattered, when more than half the sky is clear of cloud; Broken, when there are some breaks in cloud but more than half the sky is covered; and Overcast, when the sky is totally covered in cloud.

• The forecast for Sydney today is mostly fine and windy with a moderate clear sky UV index of 5 and a temperature range of 14-28 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and mostly sunny with a temperature range of 14-21. Sunday is expected to be fine with a temperature range of 11-23.

• The forecast for Melbourne today is for a few showers with a moderate clear sky UV index of 4 and a temperature range of 13-18 degrees. The forecast for tomorrow is for a shower or two clearing with a temperature range of 9-18. The forecast for Sunday is for rain later with a temperature range of 10-19.

• The forecast for Adelaide today is for an early shower or two with a moderate clear sky UV index of 4 and a temperature range of 11-17 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and partly cloudy with a temperature range of 6-21. The forecast for Sunday is for a shower or two developing with a temperature range of 12-20.

• The forecast for Brisbane today and tomorrow is for a possible shower or storm with a high clear sky UV index of 7 today and temperature ranges of 14-28 degrees on both days. Sunday should be fine with a temperature range of 13-27.

• The forecast for Hobart today is for rain periods with a moderate clear sky UV index of 3 and a temperature range of 10-16 degrees. A shower or two is expected tomorrow with a temperature range of 6-14. The forecast for Sunday is for late rain with a temperature range of 6-17.

Erisk Net, 14/9/2007