Open interest contracts jump 882 (2.3pc) to 39,063 in week to 15 October, d-cypha Trade summary shows

Open interest contracts rose by 882 (2.3 per cent) to 39,063 in the week to Monday, 15 October after falling by 4081 to 38,181 the previous week, according to figures supplied in a media release by the d-cypha Trade/Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE).

17 October: Sydney temps cooler than expected

17 October: cool weather for Victoria

17 October: High max temps for Qld

Tuesday, 16 October: One LRC omission and one addition for Qld in MT PASA list for week to 16 October

NEMMCO made two changes in the list for low reserve condition (LRC) in the medium term projected assessment of system adequacy (MT PASA) issued at 1314EST on Tuesday, 16 October following one change the previous week.

Tuesday, 16 October: Tas goes negative with 10 trading intervals between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh

Tasmania recorded negative prices of between minus $158.68/MWh and minus $999.68/MWh in 10 30-minute trading intervals on Tuesday, 16 October. From morning to early afternoon: The negative prices started in the 0900EST interval and continued though until the 1400EST interval, with only one positive price in this period.

Range of negative prices: There were two negative prices between minus $100 and minus $200, two between minus $300 and minus $400, one between minus $400 and minus $500, 1 between minus $600 and minus $700, 1 between minus $800 and minus $900 and three over minus $900 – two at minus $999.67/MWh and one at minus $999.68/MWh.

Average at minus $96.41/MWh: These 10 trading intervals forced Tasmania’s average price for the day down to minus $96.41/MWh.

Highest price of day, too: Tasmania also recorded the day’s highest price for the NEM regions of $69.96/MWh in the 0630EST interval.

Demand up: Maximum demand of 1392MW in the 1930EST interval was up 87MW (6.7 per cent) on Monday.

Reference: National Price for Tasmania for one day, Tuesday 16 October, in Price/Demand section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Erisk Net, 17/10/2007

Wednesday, 17 October: Tas in about turn: Spike to $8000.16/MWh in morning trading interval tipped after 10 negative price intervals on Tuesda

The NEMMCO predispatch at 6.53 a.m. on Wednesday, 17 October predicted a spike to $8000.16/MWh for the 30-minute trading interval ended 0900EST. Average price of $191.13/MWh expected: This large spike is expected to be enough to push Tasmania’s average price to $191.13/MWh following an average of minus $96.41/MWh on Tuesday when there were 10 negative price intervals with prices ranging from minus $158.68/MWh to $999.68/MWh.

Demand up: Tasmania’s maximum demand is predicted to continue rising, up 72MW (5.2 per cent) to 1464MW following an 87MW rise on Tuesday. Tasmania is the only NEM region expected to register an increase in maximum demand on Wednesday.

Reference: Pool Price for Tasmania in NEMMCO predispatch at 6.53 a.m. on Wednesday in User Defined section of Erisk Net – Realtime NEM Data.
http://www.erisk.net

Market forecast for Monday, 15 October: Average prices down 26-39pc to $25.43-$28.03/MWh range on falling demand

Average prices are expected to fall 26-39 per cent on Friday, the previous week day, to a range of $25.43-28.03/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to fall 874MW (3.3 per cent) to 26,918MW, with falls in all regions.
The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 15-28 degrees (11-23 on Sunday); Melbourne 13-27 degrees (11-23); Adelaide 13-29 degrees (9-21); Brisbane 15-28 degrees (15-24); and Hobart 11-21 degrees (10-20). 6.31 a.m. predispatch forecast: The following are the forecast prices and demands for the NEM regions at the predispatch at 6.31 a.m. today.

• NSW: The predicted average price is $28.03/MWh, down $9.75/MWh (26 per cent) on the $37.78/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $38.29/MWh. Average demand is expected to be 8719MW, up 78MW (0.9 per cent) on Friday’s 8641MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 9959MW, up 198MW (2.0 per cent) on Friday’s 9761MW.

• Victoria: The forecast average price is $26.51/MWh, down $14.38/MWh (35 per cent) on the $40.90/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $37.72/MWh. Average demand is predicted to be down 236MW (3.9 per cent) to 5860MW on Friday’s 6096MW while maximum demand is forecast to be 6499MW, down 240MW (3.6 per cent)on Friday’s 6739MW.

• South Australia: The expected average price is $27.61/MWh, down $12.02/MWh (30 per cent) on the $39.63/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is predicted to be $35.39/MWh. Average demand is forecast to be down 27MW (1.9 per cent) to 1386MW on Friday’s 1413MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1575MW, down 51MW (3.1 per cent) on Friday’s 1626MW.

• Queensland: The predicted average price is $25.43/MWh, down $16.51/MWh (39 per cent) on the $41.94/MWh average on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is forecast to be $35.42/MWh. Average demand is expected to be down 299MW (4.9 per cent) to 5764MW on Friday’s 6063MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 6569MW, down 703MW (9.7 per cent) on Friday’s 7272MW.

• Tasmania: The forecast average price is $28.03/MWh, down $11.54/MWh (29 per cent) on the $39.57/MWh on Friday, the previous week day. Maximum price is expected to be $48.82/MWh. Average demand is predicted to drop 36MW (3.2 per cent) to 1103MW on Friday’s 1139MW while maximum demand is expected to be 1295MW, down 41MW (3.1 per cent) on the 1336MW on Friday.

Single Infoserver only on Tuesday: NEMMCO advised that routine maintenance work required on the MMS production Infoservers meant a single Infoserver would be in use between 0930EST and 1400EST on Tuesday, 16 October. It said no impact was expected.

The weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued the following weather outlook for the following three days. In addition, it issued the following forecast for the coming day’s clear sky maximum UV (ultraviolet radiation) index for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. The BOM has three categories for forecasts relating to cloud cover: Clear/scattered, when more than half the sky is clear of cloud; Broken, when there are some breaks in cloud but more than half the sky is covered; and Overcast, when the sky is totally covered in cloud.

• The forecast for Sydney today is fine and sunny with an extreme clear sky UV index of 11 and a temperature range of 15-28 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine with an an afternoon southerly change and a temperature range of 17-31. A mostly fine day is expected on Wednesday with a temperature range of 13-19.

• The forecast for Melbourne today is for a fine day with a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 13-27 degrees. A few showers are forecast for tomorrow with a temperature range of 12-27. Wednesday should be fine with a temperature range of 9-20.

• The forecast for Adelaide today is fine and sunny with a wind change, a very high clear sky UV index of 9 and a temperature range of 17-29 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and partly cloudy with a temperature range of 11-19. Wednesday is expected to be fine and sunny with a temperature range of 8-26.

• The forecast for Brisbane today and tomorrow is fine with a very high clear sky UV index of 10 today and temperature ranges of 15-28 degrees today and 15-31 tomorrow. Wednesday should be mostly fine with a temperature range of 16-26.

• The forecast for Hobart today is mainly fine and windy with a high clear sky UV index of 6 and a temperature range of 11-21 degrees. The forecast for tomorrow is for showers, mountain snow and a temperature range of 6-12. The forecast for Wednesday is becoming fine with a temperature range of 4-14.

Erisk Net, 15/10/2007

Friday October 12: SE Qld storm possible, rain for NSW coast

Friday 12 October: moderate max temps for NSW, VIC, SA

Brisbane, Friday 12 October; max temp may touch 35C, afternoon storm-rain possible

South Australia: Adelaide forecast, cool, damp, with heat spike ahead for Monday

Victoria, Friday 12 October: moderate temps, rain, humid in Melbourne

Market forecast for Thursday, 11 October: Average prices up 1-3pc in NSW and Vic, down 1-68pc in SA, Qld and Tas to $31.090$36.48/MWh range on higher demand

Average prices are expected to rise 1-3 per cent in NSW and Victoria and fall 1-68 per cent in South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania to a range of $31.09-$36.48/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be up 229MW (0.9 per cent) to 26,304, with rises in all regions except Tasmania.

Leading bankers warning of the worst crisis in the money markets for 20 years

Leading bankers are warning of the worst crisis in the money markets for 20 years, which would come to a head when $US113 billion ($137 billion) of commercial paper — market IOUs — came up for refinancing, mainly through London, reported The Australian (10/9/2007, p.29).

NEM Market forecast for Tuesday, 2 October:Average prices continue converging as they rise 6pc in SA, steady in NSW, fall 2-7pc in Vic, Qld and Tas to $33.02-$36.18/MWh range on demand surge

Market forecast for Tuesday, 2 October: Average prices are expected to continue converging to within $3.16 of each other ($4.20 on Monday) with rises of 6 per cent in South Australia, steady in NSW and falls of 2-7 per cent in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania to an overall range of $33.02-$36.18/MWh.

Tuesday, 18 September: 2 additions, 5 omissions to MT PASA following one addition and one omission the previous week

NEMMCO made two additions and five omissions in the list for low reserve condition (LRC) in the medium term projected assessment of system adequacy (MT PASA) issued at 14065EST on Tuesday, 18 September to that issued on Tuesday, 11 September, which had one addition and one omission.

Open interest contracts rise 224 (0.6pc)to 39,462 in week to 17 September, d-cypha Trade summary shows

Open interest contracts rose by 480 (1.2 per cent) to 39,942 in the week to Monday, 17 September following a rise of 224 (0.6 per cent) to 39,462 the previous week, according to figures supplied in a media release by the d-cypha Trade/Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE).