Marginal seats spendathon: Federal Government budget surplus of about 1 per cent of gross domestic product, in line with the May budget

Federal Finance Minister Nick Minchin has warned coalition MPs against seeking more spending in marginal seats, reported The Australian Financial Review (4/8/2007, p.3).

Australian CO2 pollution by May 2007, 4.5 million tonnes below Australia’s Kyoto target for 2010

Andrew Bartlett, Australian Democrats Senate member from Queensland, in the Commonwealth Senate Hansard on 12 September, quoted figures released by the Climate Institute.

Preference negotiations between Labor and Greens to have a significant impact on federal election; Greens want all of Labor’s preferences in Senate

Preference negotiations be­tween Labor and the Greens, which could have a significant im­pact on the federal election, were growing increasingly fractious, reported The Sydney Morning Herald (11/9/2007, p.6).

Labor cries foul on Govt’s electoral enrolment changes: even after AEC’s campaign at least 100,000 people will not be enrolled and will lose their vote

The Review of certain aspects of the administration of the Australian Electoral Commission report made some reasonable and not very controversial recommendations about the administration of the AEC, ALP MP Michael Danby told Federal Parliament on 17 September 2007. He said he was sure that an incoming government would give them due consideration but that the early close of enrolment period was opposed by Labor.

Turnbull hoped to topple Costello: The Australian’s Janet Albrechtsen calls for Howard to resign, and ministers blame Turnbull for APEC provocations

According to Dennis Shanahan, writing in The Australian, (15/9/2007, p.19) Ministers blamed Turnbull for fomenting an opinion column by The Australian’s Janet Albrechtsen calling for Howard to resign. What the public did not know was that the column, came the morning after a secret cabinet meeting during APEC that had resolved to have Howard step down. Albrechtsen discussed the column with other ministers who had likewise urged her not to write it.

Destabilised Howard at APEC: Turnbull was blamed by senior Liberals for the columnist’s views, which destabilised Howard at the meeting of 21 Asia-Pacific economies. On Sunday, Sydney’s The Sun-Herald ran a story suggesting Turnbull could overtake Peter Costello as leader if Howard stepped down, and on Tuesday Sky News carried an early report that Alexander Downer and Turnbull had “withdrawn their support” for the Prime Minister.

Turnbull versus Costello: There was also a story going to press in The Bulletin suggesting Turnbull could prevail over Costello, the “duplicitious deputy”. While Turnbull continued to deny causing destabilisation or briefing journalists, he couldn’t stop his colleagues accusing him or giving him the cold shoulder as he arrived for question time.

The Australian, 15/9/2007, p. 19

Fed Senate key to upcoming election: Labor unlikely to control in its own right; Qld may see first Greens Senator

It was the Senate result in Queens­land in 2004 that gave John Howard his rare double majority – the first attained since 1977, reported The Courier Mail (1/9/2007, p.72). In 2004, 4.24 per cent of voters “split-ticketed”, with one in five voting for a minor party or independent candidate for the Senate. Their logic was to ensure the Senate remained a genuine “house of review” which checked the government’s ac­tions in the lower house.

House of review: Had Queenslanders not elected four Co­alition Senators (from six available seats), John Howard wouldn’t have been able to pass such groundbreak­ing legislation as WorkChoices and the full sale of Telstra. But many voters did pay close attention to their Senate ballot, with many deliberately “split-ticket” voting – opting for one party in the lower house, and a different party in the Senate.

Seats coming into play: But last election, most voters – especially in Queensland – ignored this role when they gave the Coalition its double majority. Today, the Coalition boasted 39 of the 76 Senate seats, Labor 28, the Greens and Australian Democrats four each, and Family First a single senator. This year – like most elections – would see a half-Senate election where six (or half) of each state’s 12 Senators would face the electorate. Add to these the four territory Senators (two each from the Northern Territory and the ACT) and we would find 40 Senate spots up for grabs. Some polling suggested Labor was travelling so well it may win three spots, thereby producing an even 3-3 split between the two major parties.

Greens may benefit: But an equally likely scenario was that the sixth spot would go to a minor party or independent, of which there were five serious contenders: incumbent Aust­ralian Democrat Andrew Bartlett, the Greens’ Larissa Waters, ex-Nationals member James Baker, Paul­ine Hanson and her United Australia Party, and Family First. Three of these have very little chance. The Democrats’ vote has col­lapsed in recent years, Baker was not well known,and Hanson appeared to have lost her initial core support. This left just two contenders and, given the Greens substantially outpolled Family First, it’s more than possible for Queensland to elect its first Greens Senator.

In other states: We could expect similar results in other states. Labor would almost cer­tainly improve on its current 28 Senators but would fall short of the 39 needed to control the Senate in its own right. The Greens may also increase in other states, with the Australian Democrats perhaps losing all four sitting Senators. Family First, too, might improve, possibly in its home state of South Australia. Whatever the mix, it was likely the Senate – from July 1 next year when the new Senators took their places – would resume its role as a genuine house of review.

The Courier Mail, 1/9/2007, p. 72