9 October: bogong bomb: fire alarm set off by bogong moths after they flew in the path of a laser beam at Parliament House in Canberra

A Fire alarm at Parliament House in Canberra yesterday may have been set off by bogong moths alter they flew in the path of a laser beam, reported The Daily Telegraph (10/10/2007, p.3).

ActewAGL plans construct a “data city”, two 24-hour data hubs at Hume and Belconnen, to create load for new gas-powered gen at Hume

According to John Thistleton, business editor, of The Canberra Times, 2/10/2007, p. 1utility provider ActewAGL is behind a proposal to construct a $1 billion “data city” to create massive computer storage in what would be one of the most significant infrastructure projects undertaken in Canberra.

Natural gas and renewable generation options, combined with demand side measures, to meet demand for electrical energy services at tenth to half greenhouse-intensity of a coal-fired power station using super-critical technology

In a submission to the Owen Inquiry into Electricity Supply in NSW, energy and environment consultant George Wilkenfeld said the rapid enhancement of demand side programs, the introduction of carbon pricing and strengthening the support for renewables and small-scale generation, along with increasing net imports from Victorian and Queensland, should delay the need for new baseload generation.

Market report for Friday, 28 September: Spikes push Qld average price up 4pc with Vic and SA rising 4-7pc, Tas steady and NSW down 1pc to $43.83-$59.72/MWh range on firmer demand

Spikes in Queensland pushed its average price up 4 per cent while Victoria and South Australia rose 4-7 per cent, Tasmania remained steady and NSW fell nearly 1 per cent to an overall range of $43.83-$59.72/MWh. System-wide maximum demand was up 186MW (0.7 per cent) to 26,156MW, with rises in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland.

ActewAGL, TransACT consider compo for small businesses among 20,000 users of failed Grapevine ISP

ActewAGL and TransACT would consider compensating small businesses among the 20,000 users of its Internet service provider Grapevine which has been out of action since Sunday morning, wrote John Thistleton, business editor, in The Canberra Times (26/9/2007, p.5).

Canberra may be hit by bushfires, on same scale as 2003 inferno, every eight years by 2050, says CSIRO climate-change study

Canberra could be hit by catastrophic bushfires on the same scale as the 2003 inferno every eight years by 2050, according to a new study on the impacts of climate change, reported The Canberra Times (27/9/2007, p.3). Dramatic predictions: The number of days of extreme fire danger each year could increase by 65 per cent by 2020 and up to 300 per cent by 2050. The dramatic predictions were made in a report prepared for the Climate Institute by the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. The Australian Conservation Foundation described the report as a wake-up call on global warming. A new bushfire strategic management plan was being developed and updated with information about the increased risks. “Climate projections indicate very extreme and catastrophic fire danger levels may become much more common,” the report said. “In Canberra, if the rate of global warming is low, the number of extreme days increases around 8-10 per cent by 2020, and 17-25 per cent by 2050. If the rate of global warming is high, the number of extreme days rises 25-42 per cent by 2020 and 137-221 per cent, around double to triple.”

Destruction in 2003: The report said a catastrophic rating was comparable to the weather when the firestorm engulfed parts of Canberra on January 18, 2003, killing four people and destroying almost 500 homes. For example, the recent increase at Amberley in Queensland was eight times that projected by the most severe warming scenarios by 2020 while in Canberra and Melbourne it has been twice as large. The report considered the scenario of low global warming, with a temperature rise of 0.7 degrees, and high global warming producing a 2.9 degree rise.

Bad news for Canberra: “Climate projections indicate very extreme and catastrophic fire danger levels may become much more common,” it said. Very extreme days occur now every two to 11 years but would occur twice as often by 2020. “By 2050, high global warming scenarios indicated a four to five fold increase in frequency of very extreme fire weather across much of southern and eastern Australia,” it said. “By 2050, Canberra may experience catastrophic fire weather every eight to 17 years.”

Adelaide Airport solar energy system scrapped; working group seeks new concept for $837,000 project

An eight-month process launched by Adelaide Airport Limited in April to “enter into an arrangement” with an or ganisation or consortium “for the design, supply and install­ation” of the solar energy sys tem has been scrapped weeks from a planned media launch, according to Michael Owen, political reporter, in The Advertiser (17/9/2007, p. 23).

Limping project killed off: Adelaide Airport spokesman John McArdle said the consor tiums were told last month the initial concept “was dead”. An AAL-State Government working group had decided to “go for a completely new con cept”. “We went back to the draw ing board,” he said. Details of the new plan are still being developed. After inquiries by The Adver tiser, however, AAL admitted the project brief for shortlisted consortiums to “quote for the construction and commission ing of the system” had been abandoned last month.

Proposal details: AAL documents obtained by The Advertiser show after receiving 11 submissions, AAL in May shortlisted three consortiums. They were BP Solar/ Grieve Gillet/Martins Integrated/Wallbridge & Gilbert; Origin/Hassell/Wallbridge and Gilbert and GHD/TEQMan. The documents state AAL and the Government had agreed on solar systems for the Terminal 1 veranda on the Level 2 drop-off, Vickers Vimy Memorial Building and adjac ent walkway and the Cowandilla-Mile End linear park. AAL was to oversee the co struction phase, with consult ant Sustainable Focus to work with the successful party, AAL and ETSA to “ensure satisfac tory grid connection of the installed system”.

New concept with different company? The total budget allocated for the project was $837,000, including any connection costs charged by ETSA. The working group was negotiating the feasibility of the new “concept” with a private organisation, McArdle said. “Another idea, used within the city of Adelaide, has been identified,” he said.

NEM Market forecast for Tuesday, 2 October:Average prices continue converging as they rise 6pc in SA, steady in NSW, fall 2-7pc in Vic, Qld and Tas to $33.02-$36.18/MWh range on demand surge

Market forecast for Tuesday, 2 October: Average prices are expected to continue converging to within $3.16 of each other ($4.20 on Monday) with rises of 6 per cent in South Australia, steady in NSW and falls of 2-7 per cent in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania to an overall range of $33.02-$36.18/MWh.

2007 NEM September quarter av pool down $9.86-$68.04/MWh (14-55pc) on inflated June quarter results

Average prices fell between $9.86-$68.04 (14 to 55 per cent) in the September quarter on the June quarter to a range of $53.35-$62.53/MWh, an analysis of price and demand statistics shows.

NEM September pool price up 4-35pc on August to $43.02-$51.10/MWh, analysis shows

Average prices rose 4-35 per cent in the first month of Spring compared to the last month of winter, an analysis of price and demand statistics shows.

ActewAGL – now buys renewables at 7c a kilowatt hour – to fight a plan to make it under the proposed ACT law, to pay homes, 52c a kilowatt hour

ActewAGL’s general manager of retail, Ivan Slavich, said the 52c a kilowatt hour tariff was not a wise use of money.

Desal emissions; 0.08kg to 5.2kg of CO2/m3: low, if the process was 100 percent driven by waste heat; if NSW coal, then 5.2kg of CO2 per m3

The analysis of emissions’ intensity of various desalination technologies showed that MSF distillation emissions could be as low as 1.98kg of CO2/m3 if the process was 100 percent driven by waste heat, according to the WWF’s Phil Dickie.

Electricity Week 14 September 2007

Energy market turnover slumps $42m (23.7pc) to $135m in week to 1 September, lowest total of financial year, AER analysis shows

Energy market turnover slumped $42 million (23.7 per cent) to $135 million to the lowest total of the 2007/08 financial year, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) said in its market analysis for the week from 26 August to 1 September.

Down $25 million on previous lowest total: The $135 million turnover was down $25 million on the previous lowest figure of $160 million in the week ending 18 August.

Ancillary services costs drop $128,000: The cost of ancillary services continued to fall, dropping $128,000 (19.5 per cent) to $527,000, compared to $655,000 the previous week. The $527,000 represented 0.4 per cent of the week’s total energy market turnover.

Average spot prices also down: The AER analysis also showed that spot prices averaged between $34/MWh in Queensland and $38/MWh in South Australia, compared to a range of $41/MWh in Queensland and $45/MWh in South Australia the previous week.

Turnover and ancillary service cost statistics: The following table shows weekly energy market turnover and ancillary services costs from the start of the 2007/08 financial year, with the weekly figures for June given for comparison purposes:

Week ending

Energy turnover

Ancillary services cost

Price forecasts more accurate:The AER analysis showed significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 62 (18.5 per cent) of the 336 30-minute trading intervals, down from 85 trading intervals the previous week.

Demand forecasts: Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in about 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in Tasmania and South Australia, occurring in about 33 per cent of trading interval

Reference: Australian Energy Regulator (AER) market analysis for week Sunday, 26 August to Saturday, 1 September. 5 September. Address: Level 11, The Tower, 360 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne Central. Melbourne. Vic. 3000. GPO Box 520, Melbourne. Vic. 3001. Phone: (03) 9290 1444. Fax: (03) 9290 1457.
http://www.aer.gov.au

Erisk Net, 12/9/2007

Market forecast for Friday, 14 September: Average prices up 1-7pc in SA and Tas, down 4-11pc in NSW, Vic and Qld to $43.48-$52.13/MWh range

Average prices are expected to rise 1-7 per cent in South Australia and Tasmania and fall 4-11 per cent in NSW, Victoria and Queensland to a range of $43.48-$52.13/MWh. System-wide maximum demand is predicted to be up 161MW (0.7 per cent) to 26,522MW, with rises in NSW, South Australia and Tasmania and falls in Victoria and Queensland. The forecast temperature ranges for the NEM capitals are: Sydney 14-28 degrees (11-23 on Thursday); Melbourne 13-18 degrees (9-21); Adelaide 11-17 degrees (14-24); Brisbane 14-28 degrees (13-25); and Hobart 10-16 degrees (7-18).

6.15 a.m. predispatch forecast: The following are the forecast prices and demands for the NEM regions at the predispatch at 6.15 a.m. today:

• NSW: The predicted average price is $46.79/MWh, down $4.70/MWh (9 per cent) on the $51.49/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is forecast to be $69.46/MWh. Average demand is expected to rise 55MW (0.6 per cent) to 8955MW on Thursday’s 8900MW while maximum demand is predicted to be 10,390MW, up 253MW (2.5 per cent) on Thursday’s 10,137MW.

• Victoria: The forecast average price is $44.77/MWh, down $1.96/MWh (4 per cent) on the $46.738/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is expected to be $62.08/MWh. Average demand is predicted to fall 8MW to 6024MW on Thursday’s 6032MW while maximum demand is forecast to be 6713MW, down 21MW (0.3 per cent) on Thursday’s 6734MW.

• South Australia: The expected average price is $43.48/MWh, up $0.62/MWh (1 per cent) on the $42.86/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is predicted to be $59.90/MWh. Average demand is forecast to be 1440MW, up 64MW (4.7 per cent) on the 1376MW on Thursday while maximum demand is expected to be 1751MW, up 158MW (9.9 per cent) on Thursday’s 1593MW.

• Queensland: The predicted average price is $49.42/MWh, down $6.05/MWh (11 per cent) on the spike-affected $55.47/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is forecast to be $71.50/MWh. Average demand is expected to be 5678MW, down 31MW (0.5 per cent) on the 5709MW of Thursday while maximum demand is predicted to be 6315MW, down 172MW (2.7 per cent) on Thursday’s 6487MW.

• Tasmania: The forecast average price is $52.13/MWh, up $3.42/MWh (7 per cent) on the $48.71/MWh average on Thursday. Maximum price is expected to be $62.10/MWh. Average demand is predicted to be 1151MW, up 33MW (3.0 per cent) on the 1118MW on Thursday while maximum demand is forecast to be 1332MW, up 37MW (2.9 per cent) on Thursday’s 1295MW.

The weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued the following weather outlook for the following three days. In addition, it issued the following forecast for the coming day’s clear sky maximum UV (ultraviolet radiation) index for 1 p.m. (when the sun’s radiation was most intense) for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. The BOM has three categories for forecasts relating to cloud cover: Clear/scattered, when more than half the sky is clear of cloud; Broken, when there are some breaks in cloud but more than half the sky is covered; and Overcast, when the sky is totally covered in cloud.

• The forecast for Sydney today is mostly fine and windy with a moderate clear sky UV index of 5 and a temperature range of 14-28 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and mostly sunny with a temperature range of 14-21. Sunday is expected to be fine with a temperature range of 11-23.

• The forecast for Melbourne today is for a few showers with a moderate clear sky UV index of 4 and a temperature range of 13-18 degrees. The forecast for tomorrow is for a shower or two clearing with a temperature range of 9-18. The forecast for Sunday is for rain later with a temperature range of 10-19.

• The forecast for Adelaide today is for an early shower or two with a moderate clear sky UV index of 4 and a temperature range of 11-17 degrees. Tomorrow should be fine and partly cloudy with a temperature range of 6-21. The forecast for Sunday is for a shower or two developing with a temperature range of 12-20.

• The forecast for Brisbane today and tomorrow is for a possible shower or storm with a high clear sky UV index of 7 today and temperature ranges of 14-28 degrees on both days. Sunday should be fine with a temperature range of 13-27.

• The forecast for Hobart today is for rain periods with a moderate clear sky UV index of 3 and a temperature range of 10-16 degrees. A shower or two is expected tomorrow with a temperature range of 6-14. The forecast for Sunday is for late rain with a temperature range of 6-17.

Erisk Net, 14/9/2007